驱动有限，窄幅波动：焦煤日报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market shows limited drivers and narrow fluctuations. With the approaching Spring Festival, domestic mines are gradually on holiday, leading to a decrease in supply. The downstream winter storage is in the final stage, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Coking coal opened low and closed high during the day but declined overall. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 89.13%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease. The daily average output of raw coal reached 1.9782 million tons. The coking coal mine inventory started to accumulate, with a week - on - week decrease of 71,700 tons. Coking enterprises and steel mills stocked up last week, and the winter storage replenishment process accelerated compared to last week. The downstream molten iron output decreased by 0.12% week - on - week, with a daily average output of 227,980 tons. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices improved. The profit of coking enterprises rebounded, but the market sentiment fluctuated greatly. With the approaching Spring Festival, the supply from mines is expected to gradually decrease, and the winter storage of downstream is in the final stage, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand and narrow fluctuations of coking coal [1]. Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal was 1,024 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures was 1,141.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 158.5 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase from the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply Data: From January 24th to January 30th, the coking coal start - up rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 89.13%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 77,070 tons, a 16,200 - ton decrease from the previous week [5]. - Demand Data: From January 16th to January 23rd, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 62,840 tons, a 4,700 - ton decrease from the previous week. The daily average output of coke of 247 steel mills was 47,010 tons, a 1,100 - ton increase from the previous week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 227,980 tons, a 120 - ton decrease from the previous week [6].