热卷日报：减仓下跌-20260202

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The hot-rolled coil futures decreased with a reduction in positions today, and the daily line fluctuated within a range. In the short term, it is mainly affected by market sentiment. Currently, the upward movement is restricted by high inventories and weak demand, while the downward movement is supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely monitored: the inventory depletion speed, as excessive inventory accumulation may lead to further price decline; and the implementation progress of "dual - heavy" projects and infrastructure investment, as the policy support will determine the medium - term rebound space. Currently, attention should be paid to the support of the previous platform [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 30,859 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 529,496 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,260 yuan, and the high was 3,298 yuan. It decreased with a reduction in positions, breaking below the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages in the short term, and closed at 3,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan or 1.24% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 9 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons, which was at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival and their production enthusiasm increased [4] - Demand: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand increased slightly this week and was at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week - on - week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased, the inventory pressure was marginally relieved, and the overall inventory was in a destocking phase [4] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to rectify involution - style competition in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The expectation of winter storage demand, the rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strong performance of iron ore as a raw material [6] - Bearish factors: The unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, the seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and the suppression of prices by inventory accumulation [6]