商品情绪弱势，钢矿承压下行：钢材&铁矿石日报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar weakened and declined by 1.56% daily, with volume contracting and positions increasing. Currently, rebar supply is running stably at a high level, while demand is weak. The fundamental situation continues to be weak. Coupled with weak commodity sentiment, steel prices are under pressure and running weakly in the off - season. Monitor inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened, with a daily decline of 1.24%, volume increasing and positions decreasing. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are at a high level, the fundamentals are running weakly. Coupled with poor commodity sentiment, hot - rolled coils are under pressure and running weakly. Be wary of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand, and monitor demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated downward, with a daily decline of 1.26%, volume increasing and positions decreasing. Currently, the supply pressure of iron ore has not receded under the high - inventory situation, while the demand for iron ore is running weakly. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Monitor the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Industry Dynamics - In 2025, China's shipbuilding industry continued to lead the world in three major indicators. The shipbuilding completion volume was 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global market; the new order volume was 107.82 million deadweight tons, accounting for 69% of the global market; as of the end of December, the holding order volume was 274.42 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.5%, accounting for 66.8% of the global market, reaching a new historical high [7]. - In January 2026, the total sales of the TOP100 real - estate enterprises were 19.052 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The decline was basically the same as that of last year, indicating that the sales of real - estate enterprises continued the trend at the end of last year and remained stable [8]. - As of February 1, 12 steel enterprises, including Chengyu Vanadium and Titanium Technology Co., Ltd., carried out the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring progress. So far, 276 steel enterprises have been publicized on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [9]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,200 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,170 yuan, unchanged; the national average price was 3,312 yuan, down 4 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,160 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,260 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,293 yuan, down 6 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan, unchanged; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged. The volume - screw spread was 60 yuan, up 10 yuan; the screw - scrap spread was 1,070 yuan, down 20 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 780 yuan, down 9 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 777 yuan, down 5 yuan; the Australian sea freight was 9.69 yuan, up 0.81 yuan; the Brazilian sea freight was 25.01 yuan, up 1.04 yuan; the SGX swap (current month) was 105.62, down 0.08; the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 103.20, down 0.95 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract was 3,098 yuan, a decline of 1.56%. The highest price was 3,139 yuan, the lowest price was 3,093 yuan, the trading volume was 1,134,404 lots, a decrease of 83,917 lots, and the open interest was 1,784,097 lots, an increase of 49,987 lots [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract was 3,261 yuan, a decline of 1.24%. The highest price was 3,298 yuan, the lowest price was 3,260 yuan, the trading volume was 529,496 lots, an increase of 5,596 lots, and the open interest was 1,498,793 lots, a decrease of 30,859 lots [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract was 783.0 yuan, a decline of 1.26%. The highest price was 793.5 yuan, the lowest price was 781.0 yuan, the trading volume was 304,564 lots, an increase of 26,268 lots, and the open interest was 520,684 lots, a decrease of 20,544 lots [14]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, and the inventory increase has expanded. The production of construction steel mills has stabilized. The weekly output of rebar increased slightly by 0.28 tons. Supply is running stably at a high level, but considering that short - process steel mills will gradually stop production as the Spring Festival approaches, supply is expected to decrease. Monitor subsequent changes. At the same time, rebar demand continues to weaken, the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions have decreased, and they are still at the low level of the same lunar period in recent years. The off - season weak demand pattern remains unchanged, which drags down steel prices. In summary, rebar supply is running stably at a high level, while demand is weak, the fundamental situation continues to be weak. Coupled with weak commodity sentiment, steel prices are under pressure and running weakly in the off - season. Monitor inventory changes [40]. - Hot - rolled coil: There are changes in both supply and demand, and the inventory reduction has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills has stabilized. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 3.80 tons, rebounded again and is at a relatively high level, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure has not receded. However, the demand for hot - rolled coils shows good resilience. The weekly apparent demand increased slightly, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products, but we still need to be wary of the accumulation of contradictions. The corresponding external demand and exports are average, and the demand resilience needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are at a high level, the fundamentals are running weakly. Coupled with poor commodity sentiment, hot - rolled coils are under pressure and running weakly. Be wary of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand, and monitor demand performance [40]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is running smoothly. The average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly last week, and the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating. Steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, and the positive factors are limited. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will continue to run weakly. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase. The overseas iron ore supply has stabilized, while the domestic ore supply is stable. Coupled with the high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not receded. In short, the supply pressure of iron ore has not receded under the high - inventory situation, while the demand for iron ore is running weakly. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Monitor the restocking situation of steel mills [41].