多空僵持，煤焦低位震荡：煤焦日报-20260202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Coke: As of the week ending January 30, the combined daily average coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 400 tons. Coking enterprises suffered heavy losses, with the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steelhome being -55 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 11 yuan/ton but still in the red. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.2798 million tons, a slight weekly decrease of 1200 tons. Overall, there were few changes in the coke fundamentals, and with no continuous support from raw material coking coal, coke futures were expected to remain in a low - level range [5][31]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending January 30, the daily average output of clean coking coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 771,000 tons, basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 1000 tons and 37,000 tons higher than the same period last year. On the demand side, as of the same week, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, also basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 400 tons. Overall, there were no obvious changes in the coking coal fundamentals. There were three potential positive factors: downstream winter storage was still ongoing, providing some support for coking coal spot prices; with the Spring Festival approaching, there were expectations of early mine shutdowns; and the tense situation in the Middle East led to a geopolitical premium in crude oil, driving up energy - related commodities. However, lacking domestic policy support and strong fundamentals, coking coal futures still lacked the momentum for continuous growth, and prices were expected to remain range - bound in the near term [5][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - Steel Enterprise Emission Reform: As of February 2, 276 steel enterprises had completed the public announcement of ultra - low emission transformation, with Sichuan Dazhou Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. being the latest one to announce its progress on that day [7]. - Coking Coal Price: On February 2, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1630 yuan/ton [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade FOB) | 1470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.23% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1240 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Coal) | 1590 yuan/ton | 2.58% | 5.30% | 6.71% | 6.71% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal) | 1780 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] Futures Market | Futures Market | Active Contract | Closing Price | High Price | Low Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Coke | 1680.5 yuan/ton | 1750.0 yuan/ton | 1356.74 yuan/ton | - 3.42% | 23,708 | - 29,542 | | - 19,903 | | | Coking Coal | | | | | | | 36,086 | | [12] Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts showed the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [13][15][16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts presented the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel mills' coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [18][20][21]. - Other Charts: Included domestic steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washery production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (coke profit per ton and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [26][28][31]. 后市研判 (Outlook) - Coke: The fundamentals remained stable, and futures were expected to stay in a low - level range due to lack of continuous support from coking coal [31]. - Coking Coal: Despite some positive factors, futures lacked the momentum for continuous growth and were expected to trade in a range [32].