2月全球策略月报：海外新因子，A股再平衡-20260202

International Market - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 62.4%, reflecting limited changes in employment dynamics [6][11] - Core inflation has cooled, with December CPI at 2.7% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.6%, both aligning with market expectations [6][11] - The FOMC meeting in January did not provide strong guidance, maintaining the policy rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, with political factors influencing dissenting votes [11][13] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and trade relations with Europe, are causing market volatility, impacting oil prices and overall economic sentiment [14][15] Domestic Market - China's GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 5%, with December exports showing strength while investment and retail sales are weaker [31][33] - Financial data indicates a narrowing gap between M1 and M2 growth rates, with M2 growth at 8.5% and M1 at 3.8%, suggesting a decline in market liquidity [33][35] - The A-share market in January exhibited a rebalancing trend, with traditional value sectors like materials and energy performing well, while technology sectors showed relative strength [35][36] - Looking ahead to February 2026, the A-share market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with a focus on sectors like storage chips, AI applications, and robotics [42]