碳酸锂月度策略报告-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy-wise, on January 27, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the capacity price mechanism on the power generation side, clarifying that new - type energy storage can obtain capacity prices based on reliable capacity. Short - term price drivers include policy orientation, strong demand production schedules under the expectation of seizing exports, and the fact that downstream inventory days were at the lowest level in recent years before the Spring Festival. However, due to the weakening of overall market sentiment and position disturbances, prices dropped rapidly while spot trading volume increased significantly. As of last Thursday, downstream inventory turnover days rose from 9.6 to 10.8 days. Considering about 10,000 tons of downstream trade transactions on Friday, if transactions are used as the standard for transfer of property rights and counted towards downstream inventory, the inventory turnover days are basically similar to last year, indicating that pre - holiday stocking demand may have been mostly met. Based on the production schedule in February, it is expected to reduce inventory by about 9,500 tons, and the short - term downside price space may be limited. In the medium term, before the terminal negative feedback appears, the stocking demand of downstream and battery manufacturers may further increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the right - side opportunities after the volatility reduction [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - This month, the price first rose and then fell, with a 25% increase compared to the closing price at the end of last month. The price dropped rapidly in the last week of January [5]. 3.2 Inventory - The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,414 tons to 107,482 tons. Among them, downstream inventory increased by 3,007 tons to 40,599 tons, inventory in other links decreased by 3,590 tons to 47,880 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 831 tons to 19,003 tons [4][5][19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Carbonate Production: The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 670 tons to 13,244 tons, lithium mica production decreased by 50 tons to 2,832 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 90 tons to 3,205 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 18 tons to 2,288 tons. According to SMM, the production schedule of battery - grade lithium carbonate in February decreased by 17.6% to 58,835 tons, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 12.7% to 23,095 tons [4][5][38]. - Lithium Hydroxide Production: Related production data is presented in the form of charts, including production by process, capacity, and import - export volume [50]. - Lithium Resources: Import volume data of lithium concentrates from different countries (Brazil, Canada, Australia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe) and production data of sample lithium mica mines and sample pyroxene mines are provided [29][31]. 3.4 Demand - Ternary Materials: The weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 203 tons to 18,053 tons, and inventory decreased by 177 tons to 18,691 tons. According to SMM, the production schedule of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% to 69,250 tons, and ternary power batteries decreased by 14.3% to 24.84 GWh [4][5][63]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 904 tons to 88,223 tons, and inventory increased by 229 tons to 96,819 tons. According to SMM, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in February decreased by 10.7% to 354,000 tons, iron - lithium power batteries decreased by 10.8% to 79.71 GWh, and iron - lithium energy storage decreased by 8.8% to 57.46 GWh [4][5][65]. - Power Cells: The weekly production of power batteries decreased by 0.4% to 26.4 GWh, iron - lithium power batteries decreased by 0.5% to 20.4 GWh, and ternary power batteries remained flat at 6 GWh [5][69]. - New Energy Vehicles: Data on production, sales, insurance registration volume, export volume, penetration rate, and battery capacity of new energy vehicles are provided [80]. - Energy Storage: Data on energy storage battery capacity, production, bidding, winning bids, and installation are provided [83]. 3.5 Others - Theoretical Delivery and Import - Export Profits: Charts show the import profit of lithium carbonate, theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene and lithium mica, export profit of lithium hydroxide, and外购 production profit [26]. - Options: Charts show historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of closing price, option trading volume, and option position of lithium carbonate [87][88].