甲醇日报：静待库存拐点-20260202

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of methanol futures has ended, with a nearly 4% decline during the trading day, and there is a possibility of further decline. Attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average at the hourly level, as well as recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4721 billion tons, an increase of 14,600 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 47,600 tons, while that in South China decreased by 33,000 tons. The inventory at methanol ports continued to accumulate this week, mainly in East China, with 191,400 tons of foreign vessels unloaded in the region. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the inventory decreased due to the lack of foreign vessel supply [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - US President Trump stated that the share of Venezuela in oil profits has not been discussed, and India is about to intervene and purchase Venezuelan oil. Trump's statement that Iran is having "serious talks" with Washington over the weekend signaled a de - escalation of tensions with the OPEC member, causing a sharp drop in WTI crude oil. The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping for Chinese New Year' Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Affected by the external market, the domestic market weakened collectively. The methanol futures fell nearly 4% during the trading day, ending the short - term rebound. There is a possibility of further decline. Attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average at the hourly level and recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes [3]