2026年2月PX、PTA、MEG策略报告-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX & PTA: Geopolitical risks disrupt oil price fluctuations on the cost side. Currently, polyester costs are high, and profit distribution has shifted from being concentrated on the PX side to a situation where both PXN and TA processing margins have rebounded to a moderately high level in the past five years. With acceptable processing profits for PX and TA, there are few changes in PX and TA devices. TA overseas devices have maintenance plans in February. China's PX maintains a monthly average of 90%, and domestic TA maintains a monthly average of 77%. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday in February, the weak reality of downstream industries is gradually materializing. Polyester factories, including terminal texturing, weaving, and dyeing factories, will gradually resume work from early to mid - March. According to CCF's assessment, the average operating load of polyester in February can drop to 80 - 82%. Then, in mid - to late March, as the devices restart, the polyester operating load will rebound. Overall, polyester raw materials will enter the inventory accumulation channel in February, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure for PX and PTA in February is obvious. In the second quarter, polyester raw materials will undergo spring maintenance, and the polyester restart load will rebound. The far - month fundamentals are expected to be good. It is expected that the market in February will be low at first and then high. Attention should be paid to the risk of less - than - expected demand recovery in the second half of the month and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [144]. - MEG: On the supply side, some overseas devices, including those in Saudi Arabia and Singapore, have restart plans around March. There are few changes in domestic devices in February. Currently, the domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and port inventories continue to accumulate. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday in February, the weak reality of downstream industries is gradually materializing. Polyester factories, including terminal texturing, weaving, and dyeing factories, will gradually resume work from early to mid - March. According to CCF's assessment, the average operating load of polyester in February can drop to 80 - 82%. Then, in mid - to late March, as the devices restart, the polyester operating load will rebound. Overall, the supply of ethylene glycol increases while the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation expectation in February is strong. The valuation has been repaired, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - side price fluctuations, and the risk of less - than - expected demand recovery in the second half of February [144]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Geopolitical Disturbance of Crude Oil Prices - Futures Prices: As of January 30, 2026, the closing prices of PTA, MEG, and PX were 5270 yuan/ton, 3913 yuan/ton, and 7400 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 yuan/ton, + 67 yuan/ton, and - 156 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.2%, 1.7%, and - 2.1% [6]. - PTA Basis and Spread: The PTA basis and spread data show certain seasonal characteristics. For example, the basis of TA01, TA05, and TA09 contracts has different trends in different months. The PTA nine - one spread and five - nine spread also show different values in different periods [8][9][10]. - MEG Basis and Spread: Similar to PTA, the MEG basis and spread also have seasonal characteristics, and the basis and spread of different contracts (EG01, EG05, EG09) change over time [12]. - PX Basis: As of January 30, 2026, the PX basis was 30 yuan/ton, with a change of 162 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of 122.8% [14]. - TA - EG Spread: As of January 30, 2026, the TA - EG spread was 1357 yuan/ton, with a change of - 77 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of - 5.4% [16]. - TA - PX Processing Margin: As of January 30, 2026, the TA - PX * 0.656 spread was 416 yuan/ton, with a change of 92 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of 28.6% [20]. - Domestic and Overseas Ethylene Glycol Spread: As of January 29, 2026, the ethylene glycol spread between Europe and China was 199 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 17 US dollars/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of - 7.8% [23]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Little Change in Devices - PX: As of January 30, the Asian PX operating load was 81.5%, with a month - on - month increase of 2 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating load was 89.2%, with a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point. The 800,000 - ton PX device of Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting at the end of January and was expected to produce products soon [33]. - PTA: As of January 30, the PTA operating load was 76.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points. Some devices had maintenance plans, such as the 1.25 - million - ton/year device of Ineos, which stopped on January 16 and was expected to restart in March; the 700,000 - ton/year (6) device of CAPCO in Taiwan was planned to be overhauled from February 5 and was expected to last until mid - March; the 225,000 - ton/year (QTA) device of Hanwha in South Korea was shut down for maintenance from January to March [36]. - MEG: As of January 30, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 74.27% (a month - on - month increase of 0.95%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 81.02% (a month - on - month increase of 3.74%). Some devices had maintenance or production - transfer plans, such as the 700,000 - ton/year device of Gulei Petrochemical, which would start maintenance in early March and was expected to last for 50 - 60 days; one line of Satellite Petrochemical was planned to stop production and transfer to PE production in mid - to late February, and the recovery time was to be determined [52]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Cancellation of India's BIS Certification - PX Import: In December 2025, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 933,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [56]. - PTA Export: In December 2025, the PTA export volume was 361,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.3%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 3.82 million tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decline of 13.6% [59]. - MEG Import: In December 2025, the ethylene glycol import volume was 835,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.2% and a year - on - year increase of 44.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 7.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.8% [63]. - Polyester Export: In December 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.3074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 32,600 tons [67]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Low Profits and Low Inventories of Downstream Finished Products - PTA Inventory: The PTA total inventory is at the bottom. The inventory data of PTA in different aspects, such as total inventory, polyester factory inventory, in - warehouse and in - port inventory, and total warehouse receipts, show certain trends over time [76][77]. - MEG Inventory: As of January 26, the ethylene glycol port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 858,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 128,000 tons [79]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Tests - Domestic Polyester Device Changes: In January 2026, many polyester devices had maintenance or restart plans, involving different types of products such as short - fiber, long - fiber, and bottle - chip [83]. - Domestic Polyester - Related Data: As of January 30, 2026, the polyester operating load was 84.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.2 percentage points. The operating rates of texturing machines, looms, and dyeing factories also decreased to varying degrees. The inventory days and cash - flow data of different polyester products also changed [86]. - Polyester Demand and Terminal Demand: Polyester demand shows certain resilience, but terminal demand is declining. The operating rates of polyester, texturing machines, and looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, as well as the sales volume of polyester yarns, show different trends. The inventory of long - fiber and short - fiber products is at a low level, but the terminal digestion ability of the weaving industry is weak, and the export of textiles and clothing in China is also weak [87][101]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - PTA Futures Position: As of January 30, 2026, the total PTA futures position was 2,186,334 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 335,082 lots and a year - on - year increase of 897,595 lots [114]. - MEG Futures Position: As of January 30, 2026, the total MEG futures position was 453,170 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 102,376 lots and a year - on - year increase of 184,266 lots [114]. - PX Futures Position: As of January 30, 2026, the total PX futures position was 460,833 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 17,922 lots and a year - on - year increase of 331,416 lots [114].