天然橡胶日报：偏空运行-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is bearish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - From a fundamental perspective, the supply in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to reduced production and suspension of harvesting, with total supply shrinking. Currently, inventory is high, and the bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao have started to decline. It is expected that the reduction in arrivals in the next few months will relieve inventory pressure. However, as the holiday approaches, the tire production capacity utilization rate is gradually decreasing, so the short - term price of natural rubber is expected to run bearishly [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On February 2, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 3.73% [1] 3.2 Supply - In December 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, compound rubber, and mixed rubber) were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [2] - Global natural rubber supply will gradually shift from the peak season to the off - season, and the supply pressure may gradually ease. However, there was still a concentrated arrival in China in late January. The Hainan production area in China has stopped harvesting, and the enthusiasm of factories for purchasing rubber is limited. With the reduction of global supply pressure and the raw material stockpiling of upstream factories, the raw material price is expected to remain firm, and the cost - side support for rubber is relatively strong. According to the production rules of ANRPC member countries, production should gradually decline starting from January, and production is likely to decline in the first quarter. Also, according to past rules, rubber imports in January and February are likely to decline [2] 3.3 Demand - On January 30, 2026, the production start - up rate of China's semi - steel tires was 74.84%, higher than the historical average for the same period, and the start - up rate was relatively high. The production start - up rate of China's all - steel tires was 62.44%, also higher than the historical average for the same period, with a relatively high start - up rate [3] - Recently, the prices of various raw materials have been running at high levels. Under cost pressure, some sample enterprises began to arrange the Spring Festival holiday from late January to early February, which will lead to a decline in the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. In the tire market, the terminal demand for all - steel tires remains weak. In the short term, inventory replenishment is still cautious. Considering the expected small peak of semi - steel tire shipments before the festival, the overall enthusiasm for replenishment is still slightly better than that of all - steel tires. All - steel tires have slow shipments and high finished - product inventories, and some enterprises may moderately reduce production [3] 3.4 Inventory - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decline of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [4] 3.5 Basis - As of January 30, compared with the spot price of rubber with Yunnan as the benchmark, the basis was - 260 yuan/ton. In absolute terms, it was lower than the annual average basis and at a historical low, with room for expansion [5]