煤化工策略月报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Urea - In January, urea supply increased steadily, demand was strong due to pre - holiday stocking, and prices rose. In February, supply is expected to further increase, and demand will first decline and then recover after the Spring Festival. From March to May, urea prices are usually demand - driven, with strong support, but price increases may trigger price - stabilizing mechanisms [5][6][8]. Soda Ash - In January, soda ash supply increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventory slightly accumulated. In February, supply will continue to increase, and demand will shrink. The supply - demand situation will be looser, and inventory pressure will increase. However, external factors may have a positive impact on futures prices [11][12][13]. Glass - In January, glass supply decreased slightly, and demand was supported. In February, supply is expected to decline slightly, but demand will decline seasonally more than supply, and inventory pressure will remain high. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is still not effectively resolved, but external factors may lead to short - term fluctuations [15]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industry Chain 3.1.1 Futures Prices - Urea: In January, the futures price of urea fluctuated strongly at a high level. As of January 30, the main 05 contract was reported at 1,790 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.7% [5]. - Soda Ash: In January, the futures price of soda ash fluctuated within a range. As of January 30, the main 05 contract was reported at 1,204 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.41% [11]. - Glass: In January, the futures price of glass fluctuated widely. As of January 30, the main 05 contract was reported at 1,056 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.94% [15]. 3.1.2 Futures - related Varieties - Various futures - related varieties such as glass - soda ash, urea - methanol, etc. are presented in the form of price difference trend charts [23]. 3.1.3 Raw Material Prices - Coal: The prices of different types of coal showed different changes in January [26]. - LNG: The ex - factory prices of LNG in various regions increased in January [30]. - Raw Salt: The prices of raw salt in some regions decreased slightly in January [33]. - Synthetic Ammonia: The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong decreased by 4.45% in January [34]. 3.2 Urea: Demand Varies Before and After the Spring Festival, and There are Many Factors Restricting the Price Increase 3.2.1 Spot Price - In January, the spot price of urea increased. As of January 29, the prices in Shandong and Henan were 1,780 yuan/ton and 1,770 yuan/ton respectively, up 70 yuan/ton and 80 yuan/ton from the end of December [38]. 3.2.2 Basis - The basis of urea in different regions showed different changes in January [41]. 3.2.3 Industry Operating Rate - The overall operating rate of the urea industry increased in January. The weekly capacity utilization rate of urea in January 30 was 88.28%, up 7.98% month - on - month [46]. 3.2.4 Weekly and Daily Output - The daily output of urea increased in January. As of January 28, the daily output was 21.11 tons, up 8.75% month - on - month [53]. 3.2.5 Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory - In January, the enterprise inventory of urea decreased by 7.29% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 16.28% month - on - month [55]. 3.2.6 Profit and Cost - The production costs of different urea production processes changed in January, and the production profits also changed accordingly [59]. 3.2.7 Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio - The weekly apparent consumption of urea in January increased by 2.28% month - on - month, and the production - sales ratio decreased by 4.64% month - on - month [62]. 3.2.8 Downstream Demand - The operating rate and output of downstream industries such as melamine, compound fertilizer, etc. showed different changes in January [65][72]. 3.2.9 Monthly Import and Export Quantities - In December 2025, the import volume of urea decreased by 82.11% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 53.75% month - on - month [84]. 3.2.10 International Market - India's latest tender only purchased 970,000 tons of urea, far less than the planned 1.5 million tons, increasing the expectation of another tender. International urea prices rose significantly in January [7]. 3.2.11 Related Products - The prices of related products such as phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer, and small nitrogen fertilizers showed different changes in January [89][92]. 3.2.12 Urea Option Volatility - The historical volatility and volatility cone of urea options are presented in the report [95]. 3.3 Soda Ash: Fundamental Pressure Remains, and External Factors May Provide Support 3.3.1 Spot Price - In January, the domestic soda ash market price was weak. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in some regions decreased [102]. 3.3.2 Basis - The basis of soda ash in the Shahe area increased in January [107]. 3.3.3 Industry Operating Rate - The overall operating rate of the soda ash industry decreased slightly in January. The industry - wide operating rate on January 30 was 84.19%, down 2.23% month - on - month [112]. 3.3.4 Production - The weekly production of soda ash increased in January. The weekly production on January 30 was 783,100 tons, up 12.34% month - on - month [122]. 3.3.5 Enterprise Inventory - In January, the enterprise inventory of soda ash increased by 2.37% month - on - month [126]. 3.3.6 Monthly Import and Export Quantities - In December 2025, the import volume of soda ash increased by 1278.00% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 22.92% month - on - month [132]. 3.3.7 Cost - The production costs of ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes decreased slightly in January [134]. 3.3.8 Profit - The production profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes increased slightly in January [138]. 3.3.9 Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio - The weekly apparent consumption of soda ash increased by 4.51% month - on - month, and the production - sales ratio decreased by 7.27% month - on - month [142]. 3.3.10 Heavy Soda Ash Demand - The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased in January [144]. 3.3.11 Light Soda Ash Downstream - The operating rates of downstream industries such as the printing and dyeing industry decreased in January [149]. 3.3.12 Soda Ash Option Volatility - The historical volatility and volatility cone of soda ash options are presented in the report [154]. 3.4 Glass: Supply and Demand of Glass Decline in February, and the Market Game Continues 3.4.1 Spot Price - In January, the domestic glass spot price increased slightly. As of January 30, the average market price of float glass was 1,107 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the end of December [15]. 3.4.2 Operating Rate and Production - The operating rate and weekly production of float glass decreased in January. The operating rate on January 30 was 71.86%, down 1.17% month - on - month [162]. 3.4.3 Daily Melting Volume - The daily melting volume of float glass decreased in January. As of January 30, it was 151,000 tons, down 0.11% month - on - month [166]. 3.4.4 Enterprise Inventory - In January, the enterprise inventory of glass decreased by 7.57% month - on - month [169]. 3.4.5 Cost and Profit - The production costs of different glass production processes changed slightly in January, and the production profits also changed accordingly [174]. 3.4.6 Apparent Consumption - The weekly apparent consumption of float glass decreased by 8.61% in January [178]. 3.4.7 Deep - processing - The operating rate of Low - E glass decreased by 2.90% in January, and the monthly output of deep - processed glass products showed different changes [180][183]. 3.4.8 Terminal Demand - Real estate - related data such as the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area showed different trends. The production and sales of the automobile industry and the production of household appliances also showed different changes [187][190][192]. 3.4.9 Monthly Import and Export Quantities - In December 2025, the export volume of float glass increased by 2.59% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 5.95% month - on - month [195]. 3.4.10 Glass Option Volatility - The historical volatility and volatility cone of glass options are presented in the report [198].