华宝期货有色金属产业链周报-20260202

Report Summary - Report Title: [Huabao Futures] Weekly Report on the Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: February 2, 2026 - Reporting Company: Huabao Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - Tin Ingot: Fluctuations increase, and it is advisable to avoid participation in the short term. Later, focus on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will stabilize in a wide - range interval, and it is necessary to avoid risks of sharp fluctuations. Later, pay attention to policy implementation effects, marginal changes in supply and demand, inventory evolution trends, macro and regulatory risks, and cost - profit transmission [27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - to - Week Market Review - Tin Ingot: Last week, the main tin ingot contract hit a new high and then sharply corrected. As of Monday morning this week, it hit the daily limit down. Tin ingot prices have been highly volatile recently, affected by both a fragile supply side and capital games. High prices have curbed downstream consumption, and demand is expected to weaken before the holiday [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market rose strongly last week. The main contract closed at 148,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18.36%. On the spot side, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 7.15% week - on - week to 170,900 yuan/ton. The price increase promoted upstream sales, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. When the futures price fell to the spot price range, downstream inquiries increased, driving up the spot price [27]. 3.2 02 Variety Data 3.2.1 Tin Ingot - Refined Tin - Production and Capacity Utilization: In the week of January 30, the combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.336 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0022 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1055 million tons. The combined capacity utilization rate was 69.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 21.77% [12]. - Tin Ingot - Inventory: In the week of January 30, the total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 10,468 tons, a week - on - week increase of 748 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3,430 tons. The social inventory in different regions of China was 10,843 tons, a week - on - week increase of 165 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2,574 tons [15]. - Tin Concentrate Processing Fees: The processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained flat week - on - week in the week of January 30, with year - on - year increases of 500 yuan/ton [17]. - Tin Ore - Import Profit and Loss: In the week of January 30, the import profit and loss level was 25,619.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,570.44 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 11,069.8 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot - Average Price: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi all increased by 8,350 yuan/ton week - on - week in the week of January 30, with year - on - year increases of 179,350 yuan/ton [22]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Supply - Capacity Utilization: Last week, the total weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 49.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 42.82%. The capacity utilization rates of different production methods showed varying trends [32]. - Supply - Production: The total weekly production of lithium carbonate last week was 21,569 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92% (648 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 72.66%. Except for the increase in the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes, the production of other raw material routes decreased week - on - week [33]. - Demand - Cathode Materials: The cathode material structure was differentiated. The weekly inventory of ternary precursor plants increased, the production of ternary materials decreased, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased [40]. - Demand - Terminal Market: The total demand was under pressure, but energy storage performed strongly with healthy inventory reduction. The production of power cells decreased slightly, and the production and sales of energy storage cells increased significantly [45]. - Inventory: The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the total sample inventory decreased. There were signs of inventory transfer from upstream to downstream [50]. - Cost and Profit - Raw Material Market: The prices of lithium raw materials such as spodumene, lepidolite, and amblygonite all increased last week [53].