美联储新主席落地，海外市场波动加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: In December, the US PPI环比 increased significantly beyond expectations to 0.5%, indicating that tariff transmission has increased inflation stickiness. A $1.2 trillion government spending bill passed in the Senate, but short - term political uncertainties are intensifying. The new Fed Chair, Warsh, with a policy orientation of "slightly dovish on the interest rate side, hawkish on the balance sheet side, and more reserved in communication", has strengthened the market's expectation of marginal tightening of liquidity. The US dollar index has strengthened, gold and silver experienced a significant decline in January, the 10 - year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.26%, the US stock market has closed down, and market risk appetite has weakened. This week, attention should be paid to the progress of the government shutdown, January ISM PMI, ADP, and non - farm payroll data [2]. - Domestic: In January, the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, and the non - manufacturing PMI also fell into the contraction range, reflecting that insufficient effective demand, combined with the off - season of manufacturing and the weakening of the construction industry, has dragged down short - term economic sentiment. In December, the year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 5.3%, and the annual growth was 0.6%, indicating that supply - side clearance and cost improvement have promoted the repair of the profit bottom. There are both short - term pressures and medium - term improvements. The A - share market rose and then fell last week, with increased differentiation. Dividend and Shanghai Composite 50 were relatively dominant, while small - cap stocks such as ChiNext and CSI 1000 weakened, reflecting an increase in risk - aversion preference and overseas risk disturbances. The profit - making effect has been weak, and broad - based ETFs have continued net outflows. The market has entered a stage of rapid style rotation. In the short term, it may maintain a volatile adjustment with mainly structural opportunities, but with policy expectations and fundamental support, the medium - term trend remains positive [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - 1. January FOMC and New Fed Chair Nomination - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with limited room for rate cuts in the first half of the year. On January 29, the Fed maintained the interest rate in the 3.50 - 3.75% range by a 10:2 vote. Trump - nominated Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed's statement upgraded the economic growth judgment from "moderate" to "robust" and emphasized the stabilization of the unemployment rate. The market is pricing in 25 - basis - point rate cuts in June and September [4]. - Powell stated that the economy and employment are stabilizing, and the policy rate is returning to neutral. Rate cuts depend on the decline of tariff - related inflation. The US economy is growing steadily, consumption and business investment are resilient, the labor market is stabilizing, inflation is still above the 2% target but has improved in structure, and the current pressure mainly comes from tariff - pushed commodity prices. After three rate cuts since September, the policy rate is at the upper edge of the neutral interest rate range, and the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust in the short term, emphasizing data dependence and policy flexibility. Rate - cut signals depend on tariff - related inflation and employment [4]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. His policy style is "slightly dovish on the interest rate side, hawkish on the balance sheet side, and more reserved in communication". He supports earlier but conditional rate cuts, is more likely to oppose QE normalization on the balance sheet side, and tends to weaken forward guidance in policy communication [5]. - 2. January US PPI - In January, the US PPI exceeded expectations, mainly driven by service prices. The PPI同比 was 3.0% (expected 2.7%, previous 3.0%), and the环比 was 0.5% (expected and previous 0.2%), reaching a new high since August last year. The core PPI同比 was 3.3% (expected 2.9%, previous revised to 3.1%), and the环比 was 0.7% (expected 0.2%, previous 0.0%). The price pressure is more concentrated in labor, channels, and service - related links. Although energy prices continued to fall, the core commodity prices excluding food and energy still made a positive contribution, while food prices had a slight drag and construction prices were basically flat [9]. Domestic Macro - 1. January Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI - In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3 (expected 50.1, previous 50.1), still in the contraction range. Some manufacturing industries entered the off - season, and the release of effective market demand was restricted. Supply and demand both declined, with new orders and new export orders falling more significantly than production. Raw material costs increased, and enterprises' finished - product inventories increased, while the profit space was still squeezed [12]. - The service and construction industries are still at the bottom. The service PMI in January was 49.5 (previous 49.7), in the contraction range and at a low level in the same period over the years. The financial industry remained active, while the real estate industry was under pressure. The construction PMI in January dropped significantly by 4.0 to 48.8, falling into the contraction range and at a low level in the same period over the years, affected by seasonal factors and the long - term weakness of traditional old drivers [13]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - 1. Equities - Different equity indices showed different trends last week. The Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 1.13%, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext 50 fell by 2.56%, 2.55%, and 2.85% respectively. Overseas, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.42%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.17% [15]. - 2. Bonds - In the domestic bond market, the 1 - year Treasury yield rose by 2.00 BP, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell by 2.34 BP. In the overseas bond market, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose by 2.00 BP, and the 10 - year German Treasury yield fell by 5.00 BP [18]. - 3. Commodities - The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 2.60%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose by 2.51%. Among them, WTI crude oil rose by 7.65%, while COMEX silver fell by 15.87% [20]. - 4. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index fell by 0.46%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell by 0.12%, and the euro against the Chinese yuan rose by 0.68% [23]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - 1. Domestic - High - frequency data on domestic congestion, subway passenger volume, real - estate transaction area, passenger - car sales, and steel consumption are presented through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [25][26][28]. - 2. Overseas - High - frequency data on overseas retail sales, unemployment claims, US Treasury yield spreads, and financial conditions are presented through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [34][35][37]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's January RatingDog manufacturing and service PMI, the eurozone's January manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMI, the eurozone's January CPI, the US's January ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI, ADP employment, and non - farm payroll data [37][40].