2026年2月聚烯烃月度报告-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - In February 2026, polyolefins are expected to fluctuate within a range. The plastic will follow the weak market sentiment, and the supply - demand pattern of plastic before the Spring Festival will improve little. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch films [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Plastic operating rate has risen to around 90% (neutral level), while PP enterprise operating rate has dropped to around 78.5% (low level). New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year for BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year for Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026. There are limited planned maintenance devices in February, and the supply pressure remains high [3] - As of the week ending January 30, PE downstream operating rate decreased 1.77 percentage points to 37.76%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.79 percentage points to 52.08%. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years, while the PP downstream operating rate is at a neutral level [3] - At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was quickly depleted and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost support from crude oil is limited due to the cooling of geopolitical situation and the weakening of the cold snap. The downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and pre - holiday stocking is limited [3] Market Review - In late January, the increase in spot prices was less than that in futures prices, and the basis of plastics and PP both dropped to a relatively low level [13][20] Production and Operating Rate - In December 2025, PE maintenance volume increased 12.70% month - on - month to 440,000 tons and 13.75% year - on - year. PE production increased 4.08% month - on - month to 3.0088 million tons and 19.55% year - on - year. The PE operating rate increased 0.12 percentage points to 83.56% month - on - month in December 2025 and is currently around 90% [25][29] - In December 2025, PP maintenance volume increased 0.54% month - on - month to 710,200 tons and 4.23% year - on - year. PP production increased 2.67% month - on - month to 3.5579 million tons and 15.51% year - on - year. The PP operating rate decreased 0.61 percentage points to 77.82% month - on - month in December 2025 and is currently around 78.5% [33][37] Import and Export - In December 2025, China's PE imports were 1.3299 million tons (up 4.62% year - on - year and 25.21% month - on - month), and exports were 92,100 tons (up 58.30% year - on - year and 7.27% month - on - month). The net imports of PE in December 2025 were 1.2378 million tons (up 2.04% year - on - year). The LLDPE net imports are expected to continue to decline in 2026 [43] - In December 2025, China's PP imports were 332,400 tons (down 1.28% year - on - year and up 9.02% month - on - month), and exports were 267,800 tons (up 35.80% year - on - year and 4.04% month - on - month). PP net imports are expected to continue to decline [49] Downstream of Polyolefins - In 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products was 79.1991 million tons (down 0.2% year - on - year), and the export amount was 748.7 billion yuan (down 1.3% year - on - year) [53] - As of the week ending January 30, the PE downstream operating rate decreased to 37.76%, and the PP downstream operating rate decreased to 52.08%. The plastic film orders and woven bag orders both decreased slightly [57] Polyolefin Inventory - As of January 30, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 445,000 tons, which was 115,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [61] Polyolefin Profit - In January, except for the oil - based process, the profits of other LLDPE processes rebounded, and the profits of coal - based and ethylene - based processes turned positive. The profits of all PP processes were still in the red, but the losses of the MTO, PDH, and coal - based processes narrowed [64]