2月债市，关注资金与风偏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market in February 2026 may continue to fluctuate, with neither bulls nor bears having a dominant position. The convergence of market risk appetite and weakening fundamental data may drive interest rates down, while the concentrated supply of government bonds at the beginning of February, potential capital fluctuations before the Spring Festival, and uncertainty in inflation repair may act as resistance to interest rate declines [2][63]. - Currently, institutional strategies are consistently biased towards risk aversion, with the duration of interest - rate bond funds at a low level since 2025. The coupon - bearing sector is relatively crowded, while various spreads within interest - rate bonds may provide opportunities for excess returns [6][63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 January Bond Market: High - Open and Low - Close - The long - end interest rates in the bond market in January experienced an unexpected high - open and low - close trend. Supply - demand changes, risk appetite adjustment, institutional behavior, and tax - period disturbances were the main influencing factors. The 10 - year Treasury yield started at 1.85%, reached a high of 1.90% at the beginning of the month, and ended at 1.81% at the end of the month [1][11]. - From a structural perspective, asset management institutions preferred coupon - bearing assets such as 3 - 5 - year medium - and long - term credit bonds and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds to lay a foundation for high static yields at the beginning of the year [1][20]. - In January, the interest - rate pricing logic changed. The negative impact of potential changes in bond - fund regulation dissipated, while the bullish logic of the supply - demand mismatch of government bonds emerged. The suppression of the bond market by the equity market also eased [1][24]. 3.2 February Bond Market: Four Key Lines 3.2.1 Supply - Demand Structure - In January, the actual net supply of government bonds was 1.18 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 1.35 - 1.37 trillion yuan. The main reason was that five provinces and cities that originally planned to issue local bonds in January did not issue them, with a cumulative scale of 1858 billion yuan [25]. - It is estimated that the net issuance of Treasury bonds and local bonds in February will be 420 billion and 650 billion yuan respectively, totaling 1.07 trillion yuan, similar to the scale in January. This may ease the supply - demand mismatch at the beginning of the year. However, the supply pressure in February is concentrated in the first week, with a single - week issuance of 976.7 billion yuan, accounting for about 53% of the total February issuance, which may disrupt primary - market issuance pricing and affect secondary - market yields [2][28]. 3.2.2 Capital Changes - In February, the capital market has three challenges: the impact of concentrated net payments for government bonds, seasonal cash - withdrawal demand before the Spring Festival, and the coincidence of the tax period and month - end after the Spring Festival. The inter - bank liquidity may rely more on central - bank injections [2][32]. - Past experience shows that the central bank's capital injections during the Spring Festival have generally been sufficient. Except in 2025, the 7 - day capital rate usually does not fluctuate significantly before the Spring Festival, and it often shows a downward trend from T - 3 days before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the capital rate fluctuates, but the amplitude is smaller than before the Spring Festival [2][42]. 3.2.3 Risk Appetite Adjustment - In terms of equity assets, after the tightening of financing supervision on January 14, the "slow - rise" of the stock market became the consensus. The profitability of equity assets returned to normal, and the continuous suppression of the bond market by the "strong risk appetite" weakened [3][45]. - Regarding gold assets, after Kevin Warsh was nominated as the next Fed chairman, the spot price of London gold plunged on January 30, with a single - day decline of 9.25%, the largest since March 1983. As the price of gold fluctuates at a high level, some funds may turn to lower - volatility assets, which is beneficial to the bond market [3][48]. - After the Spring Festival, the market may enter the policy - gaming stage before the Two Sessions. If the national GDP growth target is slightly lowered, the expectation of strong - stimulus policies may decline, which is relatively favorable for the bond market [51]. 3.2.4 Inflation Concerns - Fundamentally, the manufacturing PMI in January fell 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating a decline in the economy at the beginning of the year. The credit performance in January may be similar to that in 2025, with only a slight year - on - year increase, and the "good start" of credit is lackluster [3][52]. - However, inflation data may always be a concern for the bond market. Domestic high - frequency price data and the year - on - year increase of the overseas CRB industrial - raw - material index suggest that the PPI data in January may continue to rise, which may challenge the bullish sentiment in the bond market [3][58]. 3.3 Bond - Market Strategy: Seek Progress While Maintaining Stability - Given the above four key lines, the bond market in February may continue to fluctuate. The strategy of "seeking stability" is mainly reflected in the duration aspect, with the portfolio duration maintained at a neutral level, such as around 3.5 years for interest - rate products [6][66]. - The strategy of "seeking progress" is reflected in the selection of bond varieties. For example, investors can consider taking advantage of the spread - compression opportunities within interest - rate bonds [6][66].