固定收益部市场日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fixed - income market, including bond price movements, new issuances, and macro - economic factors. It also provides insights into the China economy based on PMI data and anticipates policy stimulus and GDP growth trends [2][3][13] - West China Cement's tender offer and new bond issuance are considered to lower its near - term refinancing risk, and the report maintains a buy rating on WESCHI 9.9 12/04/28 [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, financial FRNs traded 1bp wider. In HK, NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex surged 0.5 - 3.0pts. FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.5pts. SHUION 26 - 29 edged 0.2 - 0.6pt higher. SUNHKC 26 was 0.1pt lower and SUNHKC 29 was 0.3pt higher. TW lifers were 2 - 4bps wider. Long - end MEITUA/KUAISH widened 2 - 3bps. EHICAR 26 was down by 0.6pt. WESCHI 26 - 28 were 0.1pt higher. In Chinese properties, VNKRLEs rose 1.8 - 2.7pts. FUTLAN 28 edged 1.1pts higher. LNGFOR 27 - 32 were 0.2pt lower to 0.2pt higher. In SE Asian space, OCBCSP/UOBSP traded 1 - 2bps wider. IHFLIN 27 - 30/TOPTB 6.1 Perp were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. VLLPM 27 - 29 rose 1.0 - 1.3pts. GLPSP Perps were up by 0.5 - 0.9pt. JP insurance subs like RESLIF 6.875 Perp leaked by 0.1pt. NTT 35/MUFG35 - 36 were 1 - 3bps wider. Yankee AT1s were 0.3pt weaker. In the Middle East, ARAMCO 30 - 56s/SECO 29 - 36s widened 1 - 4bps. Long - end KSAs were down 0.1 - 0.5pt. LGFV space was stable [2] - This morning, HYNMTR FRNs were 1 - 2bps tighter. KUAISH slightly recovered to 1bp tighter. ZHOSHK 28 spread was unchanged. FAEACO 12.814 Perp/VNKRLE 27 were 1.0 - 1.2pts lower. NDPAPE 14 Perp was 0.3pt higher. WESCHI 26 - 28 were 0.4 - 1.0pt higher [3] Marco News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (- 0.43%), Dow (- 0.36%) and Nasdaq (- 0.94%) were lower. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead Federal Reserve. US Dec'25 PPI was +0.5% mom, higher than the market expectation of +0.2%. 2/5 - year UST yield was higher while 10/30 - year UST yield was lower. 2/5/10/30 - year yield was at 3.52%/3.79%/4.26%/4.87% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - West China Cement (Weschi) launched a tender offer for its USD200mn WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 at a tender price of 101.238, equivalent to the bond's call price. The offer expires on 6 Feb'26 5pm CET. Weschi plans to redeem WESCHI 26 in full on 6 Mar'26 at 101.238 [7] - Concurrently, Weschi will issue USD300mn WESCHI 10.5 11/11/29 (-/B/B). Net proceeds will be used to refinance existing debts, including funding the tender offer and early redemption for WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26. The report maintains a buy on WESCHI 9.9 12/04/28 for its good carry, with WESCHI 28 trading at YTM of 9.8% at 100.3, up c2pts YTD. Weschi's earnings improved in 1H25, and near - term refinancing risk is viewed as lower [8] China Economy - China's manufacturing PMI retreated in January after a December rebound. Demand softened as new orders slipped back into contraction and export orders weakened again. Deflation pressure continued to ease, with raw material purchase and ex - factory prices both expanding, indicating PPI may return to positive sooner. Service PMI remained in contraction while construction PMI fell back, signaling pressure to stabilize fixed asset investment. Policy stimulus around CNY is expected, including stabilizing the property market and stimulating consumption. A 50bp cut in RRR and a 10bp cut in LPR in 1Q26 are expected, followed by an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26. The broad fiscal deficit should remain almost flat at 8.5% in 2026, and the full - year GDP growth rate may decline from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 [12][13] - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% in January from 50.1% in December, with new order index declining to 49.2% from 50.8% and new export orders falling to 47.8% from 49.0%. Production eased but stayed in expansion at 50.6% in Jan. Deflation pressure continued to ease as raw material purchase prices stayed elevated and ex - factory prices improved. Import demand stayed weak, and inventory indicators remained subdued [14] - Non - manufacturing PMI softened in January. Service PMI edged down to 49.5% from 49.7%, with activity expectations improving. Service selling prices improved, while employment remained subdued. Construction fell to 48.8% in January, with new orders weakening and business expectations easing, indicating pressure on fixed asset investment [15] Offshore Asia New Issues Priced | Issuer/Guarantor | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Coupon | Priced | Issue Rating (M/S/F) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ADM Elektrik | 500 | 5NC2 | 9.5% | 9.5% | B2/-/BB | | Tsetsen Mining and Energy | 300 | 5yr | 11.375% | 11.5% | Unrated | | West China Cement | 300 | 3.75yr | 10.5% | 10.5% | -/B/B | [18] Pipeline | Issuer/Guarantor | Currency | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Pricing | Issue Rating (M/S/F) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CMBC International Funding (HK) | USD | - | 3yr | SOFR + 115 | -/-/BBB | | New Development Bank | USD | - | 3yr | SOFR MS + 55 | Unrated | [19] News and Market Color - Last Friday, 81 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB45bn. In Jan'26, 1,999 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,691bn, a 16.2% yoy increase [20] - China is considering selling special government bonds of RMB200bn (cUSD29bn) to recapitalize some insurers and injecting RMB300bn into ICBC and ABC [20] - Macau gaming revenue for Jan'26 rose 24% yoy to MOP22.6bn (cUSD2.8bn) [20] - Indonesia is reforming its equity markets after the Jakarta Composite Index plunged by up to 16.5% [20] - Adani Green's directors plan to seek dismissal in US SEC lawsuit [20] - Azure Power Energy delayed the planned early redemption of AZUPOE 3.575 08/19/26 of USD294.184mn to 13 Feb'26 from 5 Feb'26 [20] - Panama's top court ruled that CK Hutchison's port - operating contract is unconstitutional [20] - China Overseas Grand Oceans priced a 3yr dim sum bond at 3.2%, tightened from IPT at 3.75%, issue size RMB1.3bn [20] - Dalian Wanda announced to redeem USD50mn of DALWAN 11 02/13/28, and the maximum acceptance amount of the tender offer is USD350mn [20] - Muthoot Finance plans to raise USD600mn under the global medium - term note program [20] - Nomura Holdings 9MFY26 net revenue rose 10.5% yoy to JPY1.6tn (cUSD10.4bn) [20] - CTFE is in discussions with potential investors regarding potential investments in NWD, but no agreement has been reached [20] - Vedanta Ltd.'s demerge plan will be effective on 1 Apr'26, and it expects to list four demerged units by mid - May'26 [20] - China Vanke expects its loss attributable to shareholders to widen sharply in FY25 to RMB82bn (cUSD11.8bn) [27] - Yuexiu Property priced a 3yr dim sum bond at 3.4%, tightened from IPT at 3.85%, issue size RMB1.735bn [27]