冠通期货研究报告：2026年2月宏观经济月度报告-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the global capital market fluctuated violently. Geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and currency market volatility affected asset prices. In China, the market showed a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality. The hot market in January was cooled at the end of the month, and the macro - trading logic may change. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of risk assets due to tightened liquidity expectations [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Capital Market Performance - In January, the global capital market was highly volatile. Gold and silver soared and then crashed, and Bitcoin declined. The VIX index rose after violent fluctuations. Global major stock markets all rose, the BDI index increased, the US dollar first declined and then rose, and non - US currencies slightly increased. Commodities generally rose [4][60]. 3.2 Domestic Futures Market Performance - In January, the domestic futures market had high volatility and strong differentiation. The four major stock indexes all rose, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Treasury bond futures mostly rose, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Commodities were active, with precious metals leading the rise, and there was a pattern of strong industrial products, weak agricultural products, and strong external markets, weak domestic markets [5][65]. 3.3 Trump's Nomination of Kevin Warsh - On January 30, 2026, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. The "Warsh expectation" may lead to a structural change in the Fed's policy mix, causing asset price re - pricing and increased volatility. It has different impacts on various asset classes such as interest rates, stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies [14][24][26]. 3.4 "US - Japan Joint Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market" - The expectation of "US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market" has changed the macro - logic. The future path depends on whether the joint intervention will be implemented and the solution to Japan's domestic fiscal and monetary policy problems. The sharp appreciation of the yen will have a chain reaction on global asset prices [29][31][35]. 3.5 China's Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0%. In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped significantly, indicating a cooling of manufacturing prosperity, shrinking internal and external demand, and weak production and demand [43][46][100]. 3.6 IMF World Economic Outlook - The IMF predicts that global growth will remain resilient in 2026 and 2027, with a growth rate of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Global inflation is expected to decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 [53][55]. 3.7 Global Economic Performance - The global economic sentiment has cooled overall. Manufacturing PMI has been stable, while service - sector PMI has declined. Major economies' inflation has generally fallen, but inflation expectations show a split trend. Central banks' monetary policies vary, with the Fed shifting from balance - sheet reduction to expansion, the Bank of Japan accelerating balance - sheet reduction, and the People's Bank of China and the European Central Bank expanding their balance sheets [77][85][90]. 3.8 China's Economic Performance - In January 2026, China's manufacturing prosperity declined significantly. M2 growth rebounded slightly, M1 growth continued to decline, and the growth rate gap between M2 and M1 widened. Export growth remained strong, but there were concerns about external demand. The real estate market was weak, consumption growth slowed down, and inflation showed a trend of CPI turning positive and PPI negative growth narrowing [100][103][117]. 3.9 Mid - level Industry Performance - Steel prices were low, and blast furnace operating rates were at a low level. Crude oil prices rebounded, and inventories increased slightly. Copper prices reached new highs and began to accumulate inventories. Coking coal spot prices were stable, but futures prices declined. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached a new high, domestic freight rates showed a split rebound, and automobile production growth was stable [138][142].