Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - February 2026 Crude Oil Monthly Report - Release Date: February 2, 2026 - Analyst: Su Miaoda [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Due to the impact of winter storms, the EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventory has decreased. The recent increase in the world economic growth rate by the IMF and the cold weather have alleviated demand concerns, but the enthusiasm for crude oil demand will decline after mid-February. The global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply surplus situation. The EIA's latest January monthly report has raised the surplus幅度 of crude oil supply in 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The geopolitical risks in Iran have cooled down, but attention should still be paid to the situation in Iran. The geopolitical situation has cooled down, the impact of the cold wave is short - term, and the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan is gradually recovering. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly in February [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In January 2026, crude oil prices first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of the month, the U.S. raided Venezuela and arrested Maduro, but the global crude oil market had digested the impact of restricted Venezuelan crude oil exports before New Year's Day. Trump said that Venezuela would transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. As Iran had riots and the U.S. increased its military presence in the Middle East, along with the increase in the world economic growth rate by the IMF and the cold - weather - driven diesel heating demand, demand concerns were alleviated, and crude oil prices rebounded [7]. 2. Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - In the past two weeks, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds has continued to increase. As of the week ending January 20, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased by 8,509 contracts to 216,970 contracts, an increase of 4.08% and 71.95% compared to the end of December. The enthusiasm for crude oil speculation has rebounded since mid - December 2025 but remains at a relatively low - to - neutral level in recent years. As of January 28, the number of Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels compared to the end of December 2025, still at a low level [11]. 3. Crude Oil Production - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. U.S. crude oil production in the week ending January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high. The U.S. Energy Secretary called for more than doubling the global oil production at the World Economic Forum [15]. 4. Oil Drilling Rigs - In January, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs decreased slightly. As of the week ending January 23, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs was 411, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 1 compared to the week ending December 30. The slight decline of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased the expectation that low oil prices will limit U.S. crude oil production growth [19]. 5. U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Exports - According to U.S. Energy Administration data, as of the week ending January 23, U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 805,000 barrels per day to 5.642 million barrels per day, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years; U.S. crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [23]. 6. China's Crude Oil Processing and Imports - China's domestic crude oil processing volume rebounded month - on - month. In December, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 26.85% month - on - month to 62.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume increased by 4.10% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly. China's domestic crude oil imports also rebounded month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. In December, China's crude oil imports increased by 9.98% month - on - month to 55.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil imports increased by 4.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rebound slightly [27]. 7. U.S. Economic Data and Fed Policy - U.S. non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 70,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. The non - farm payrolls in October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but higher than market expectations. The core CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year before seasonal adjustment. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in the January interest - rate meeting, in line with market expectations. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman [31]. 8. Gasoline Crack Spreads - In January, the U.S. gasoline crack spread increased by $2.0 per barrel, while the European gasoline crack spread decreased by $5.0 per barrel. The U.S. and European diesel crack spreads increased by $4.0 per barrel and $2.0 per barrel respectively [35]. 9. U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA monthly report raised the WTI crude oil price forecast for 2026 by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the global oil demand forecast for 2026 from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the global oil production forecast for 2026 from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate forecast for 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the global oil production growth rate forecast for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. According to the latest U.S. Energy Administration data, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08%, and the year - on - year decline has decreased. The weekly production of gasoline increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.266 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The weekly production of diesel increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.721 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%. The increase in gasoline and diesel production has driven the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to increase by 2.49% month - on - month [40]. 10. Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of January 28, U.S. EIA data showed that as of the week ending January 23, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.848 million barrels, and were 2.94% higher than the five - year average. The inventory in the Cushing area was reported at 24.785 million barrels, a decrease of 278,000 barrels compared with the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The gasoline inventory increased by 223,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.009 million barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 515,000 barrels to 414.9 million barrels as of the week ending January 23, the highest since the week ending September 30, 2022, and has increased for 26 consecutive weeks [44][48]. 11. Geopolitical Risks - Iranian official Larryjani said on January 31 that the negotiation framework is gradually taking shape. On February 1, eight foreign ministers issued a joint statement condemning Israel for violating the Gaza cease - fire agreement. A new round of tripartite talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia will be held on February 4 and 5, and no formal cease - fire agreement on energy goals has been reached between Russia and Ukraine. Trump believes that an agreement on Cuba is about to be reached and that the negotiation on Greenland has started and the agreement is basically reached [50].
冠通期货研究报告：2026年2月原油月度报告-20260202
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2026-02-02 13:20