铜价大跌冷思考：铜价的中枢在哪里

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Buy (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The central price of copper is determined by macroeconomic factors (β) and real demand (α), where the price "central" is not influenced by short-term supply and demand but rather by the macro environment and sustainable real demand [2] - Macroeconomic factors (β) include real interest rates, dollar liquidity, global credit expansion, and risk appetite, which act as amplifiers for all commodities, influencing market valuations [3] - Real demand (α) emphasizes long-term trends and sustainability, focusing on indicators such as grid investment, energy transition, and manufacturing capital expenditure, which are not influenced by short-term financial conditions [4] - The supply side of copper is characterized by long cycles and constraints, making it a slow variable that does not significantly affect the price central [5] Market Dynamics - Recent declines in copper prices are driven by macroeconomic factors (β) rather than real demand (α), indicating a market-wide revaluation rather than a fundamental deterioration in any specific sector [6] - The current market phase is transitioning from a period of β shocks to a phase where the impact of these shocks is expected to diminish, leading to a reassessment of real demand [11] Price Outlook - Short-term trading logic is influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve leadership changes and tightening liquidity, suggesting caution in declaring a market bottom [12] - The medium-term outlook for copper prices will depend on whether real demand (α) remains intact, with key indicators being global grid investment and capital expenditure in energy and manufacturing [12] Investment Recommendations - Current strategy should focus on structural defense under β pressure while waiting for a revaluation of α, with a preference for aluminum over copper in the short term [13][15] - For copper, patience is advised, with a focus on high-certainty domestic companies over more volatile overseas firms, and a preference for mining companies over processing firms [15]