可转债市场周观察：转债深水区，回调中寻找交易性机会

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current trend of the convertible bond market depends on the underlying stocks. Despite a significant pullback in equities this week, the market's expectation of a slow bull market remains unchanged. With high convertible bond valuations, the probability of active valuation reduction is low. After the correction, opportunities outweigh risks. The share trend of convertible bond ETFs shows continuous net inflows since 2026, accelerating this week, indicating strong willingness of funds to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the large number of convertible bonds triggering early redemption in the coming week to prevent individual bond clause risks [6][9]. - The view on convertible bonds remains unchanged. As the number of convertible bonds below 130 yuan decreases, the convertible bond market enters deep - water territory. High valuations are expected to persist in an equity bull market. Currently, trading opportunities far exceed allocation opportunities. Technical indicators should be appropriately considered. When the overall premium rate is too high, its reference significance decreases, and the importance of the remaining term increases. It is recommended to focus on newly issued convertible bonds, those with redemption waivers, and those whose shareholders have not yet reduced their holdings [6][9]. - Overseas geopolitical tensions have temporarily eased, with Trump indicating plans to dialogue with Iran, reducing the expectation of geopolitical conflict escalation. Coupled with the disturbance of the Federal Reserve Chairman selection event, and domestic regulators continue to release the expectation of a slow - bull market, with policies guiding and supporting sectors such as hard - tech and consumption. The technology growth sector has oscillated and consolidated with the broader market. After continuous increases, non - ferrous metals and safe - haven assets have also experienced significant pullbacks. In the context of global risk assessment differentiation, the stable domestic and volatile overseas environment is beneficial to domestic assets. Foreign capital inflows are expected. Sideways oscillations with a slight upward trend remain the main tone, and the slow - bull pattern remains unchanged. Mid - cap blue - chip stocks will become the mainstay in the future [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Viewpoint: Find Trading Opportunities in the Deep - water Area of Convertible Bonds during Corrections - The current trend of the convertible bond market is mainly determined by the underlying stocks. After the equity pullback this week, the slow - bull market expectation remains. High - valuation convertible bonds are less likely to see active valuation reduction. After the correction, opportunities are greater than risks. The continuous net inflow of convertible bond ETFs since 2026, accelerating this week, shows strong buying - on - dips sentiment. Be cautious of individual bond clause risks due to a large number of convertible bonds triggering early redemption next week [6][9]. - As the number of convertible bonds below 130 yuan decreases, the market enters deep - water territory. High valuations will continue in the equity bull market. Trading opportunities are more prominent than allocation opportunities. Pay attention to technical indicators, and the remaining term becomes more important when the overall premium rate is high. Focus on newly issued convertible bonds, those with redemption waivers, and those with non - reduced shareholder holdings [6][9]. - Overseas geopolitical tensions ease, and domestic policies support hard - tech and consumption. The technology growth sector oscillates with the market, and non - ferrous metals and safe - haven assets pull back. The stable domestic and volatile overseas environment is favorable for domestic assets, with expected foreign capital inflows. The slow - bull pattern remains, and mid - cap blue - chips will play a key role [6][9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Slight Decline in Convertible Bond Trading Volume and Significant Compression of Valuations 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Close Lower, with Slight Increase in Trading Volume - The equity market is under pressure this week, with more obvious adjustments in small - and medium - cap and growth styles. Market sentiment is cautious, and funds are flowing towards low - volatility and defensive sectors. The CSI 300 rises 0.08%, and the SSE 50 rises 1.13%, while other major indexes such as the SSE Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index decline to varying degrees. In terms of industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, and coal lead the gains, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, and the automobile sector lead the losses. The average daily trading volume increases slightly by 262.499 billion yuan to 3.06 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten rising convertible bonds last week are Lianrui Convertible Bond, Tianzhun Convertible Bond, Baichuan Convertible Bond 2, etc. In terms of trading volume, Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, and Zhekuang Convertible Bond are more active [12]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Trading Volume Declines, and Low - priced, High - rated Convertible Bonds Have Smaller Declines - Convertible bonds decline significantly this week, with the 100 - yuan premium rate also significantly compressed. The average daily trading volume decreases slightly to 8.4571 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index drops 2.61%, the median conversion price drops 2.1% to 108.4 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate rises slightly by 0.2% to 32.4%. In terms of style, low - priced and high - rated convertible bonds have smaller declines, while high - priced convertible bonds perform poorly [18].