债券研究周报：债市情绪继续谨慎-20260202

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [7]. - From January 27 to February 2, the seller sentiment index continued to decline, and the buyer sentiment index dropped from 0 to negative. Institutions are generally cautious about the future outlook [7]. Group 2: Seller Perspective - Based on the analysis of 33 seller institutions, the bond market sentiment continued to decline, and some sellers turned neutral. Currently, sellers hold a neutral - bullish attitude, with sentiment lower than the previous period (January 20 - January 26) [8]. - 6% of institutions are bullish, believing that model signals are all positive, the interest - rate downward trend is established, and the supply - demand pattern favors the bond market [8]. - 91% of institutions are neutral, stating that the weakening fundamentals and stable funding support sentiment repair, but interest - rate decline is limited by the 1.8% psychological threshold and the central bank's preferred range. The market is expected to maintain low - volatility oscillations [8]. - 3% of institutions are bearish, arguing that the market is sensitive to loose - monetary expectations, which may become a selling opportunity. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to stay in the 2% - 3% range, with a central value of about 2.5% [8]. Group 3: Buyer Perspective - After sorting out the views of 21 fixed - income buyer institutions, it's found that the number of bearish views increased, and neutral views remain the mainstream, with an overall neutral stance [9]. - 10% of institutions are bullish, suggesting short - term waiting at the 1.8% psychological threshold and following up after the breakthrough [9]. - 52% of institutions are neutral, believing that the bond market is mixed, maintaining a range - bound pattern, with limited short - term yield space [9]. - 38% of institutions are bearish, stating that rising funding rates and supply pressure suppress the market, and with current interest rates close to the lower limit, there is a lack of new positive factors, and short - term risks outweigh opportunities [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment Index - From January 27 to February 2, the unweighted seller sentiment index was 0.03, a decrease of 0.04 compared to the previous period. Some institutional views turned neutral [14]. - From January 27 to February 2, the unweighted buyer sentiment index was - 0.29, a decrease of 0.29 from the previous period, dropping from 0 to negative [15].