养殖端出栏节奏加快，猪价整体下行

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [70] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a faster pace of market release, leading to a decline in pig prices. As of January 30, the price was 12.24 CNY/kg, down 0.68 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-bred and purchased piglets were 25.10 CNY/head and 124.13 CNY/head, showing a week-on-week change of -18.25 CNY and +8.29 CNY respectively [2][8][29] - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising, and import restrictions on beef are expected to support long-term price increases. As of January 30, the price for fattened bulls was 25.71 CNY/kg, up 0.19% week-on-week, while calf prices were 33.14 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [3][31] - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in white chicken prices due to pre-Spring Festival stocking. As of January 30, the price for white feathered meat chickens was 7.74 CNY/kg, up 0.24% week-on-week [3][36] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pace of market release is accelerating, resulting in a decline in pig prices. The average weight of pigs released is decreasing, with the industry average at 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg week-on-week. The supply from large farms is increasing, contributing to the price drop [2][19][29] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, down 290,000 from October, indicating a gradual effect of capacity reduction policies [2][29] Beef Industry - The calf market is tight, leading to price increases. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive due to supply constraints from reduced breeding cow numbers [3][31] - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented measures to restrict imported beef, which is expected to benefit domestic beef prices [3][31] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing price increases due to tight supply and increased demand from pre-holiday stocking. The price for chicken products is also rising, with a notable increase in profits for both chicken farming and slaughtering [3][36][39] Dairy Industry - The raw milk price is currently at a low point, with expectations for continued capacity reduction. As of January 23, the price was 3.04 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week. The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases [3][32][34] Seed Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture is enhancing market inspections and intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified crops [3][45]