格林大华期货早盘提示-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to continuous wrong policies in the US [2] - There is significant uncertainty in the global economic situation, influenced by factors such as potential inflation resurgence, Fed policy changes, and geopolitical issues [1][2] Summary by Related Content Global Economic News - Global financial giants like BlackRock, Pimco, and Bridgewater are guarding against inflation resurgence, with the 10 - year inflation swap reaching its highest increase in a year. Some top - tier institutions warn that inflation may return above 4% by the end of the year [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's current large balance sheet is a decision of the existing FOMC. If unemployment drops further, spending remains strong, and inflation doesn't decline, the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged this year [1] - Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 through bond and equity financing for cloud infrastructure expansion, but it already has $95 billion in debt [1] - Red杉 Capital partner thinks SpaceX's valuation has soared from $36 billion in 2019 to $800 billion, and Musk's business value is still underestimated [1] - Tesla will unveil the third - generation humanoid robot, with a planned annual production of 1 million units. The Model S/X production line at the Fremont factory will be converted, and mass production is expected to start by the end of 2026 [1] - The market interprets Japan's statement on "enhancing economic resilience to exchange - rate fluctuations" as a cautious downgrade of direct yen intervention. The yen faces a rising risk of a short - term decline [1] - Due to inflation stickiness and strong employment, the market is re - evaluating the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike this week has risen to 73%, and the 10 - year bond yield is approaching 5% [1] - Japan officially confirmed no actual intervention in the foreign - exchange market in January. The future of the yen is uncertain as the US denies coordinated action, and Japan may face stronger intervention pressure after the election [1] Global Economic Logic - Bridgewater's Dalio warns that the US is at risk of civil war, and investors should be aware of capital - control risks [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of Fed nominee chair Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - Geopolitical actions by the US, such as seizing Venezuelan oil and attempting to buy Greenland, bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - Nomura says Fed - related uncertainties may peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while low - and middle - income families cut back [2] - TSMC's Q4 performance and 2026 revenue guidance signal the continuation of the AI boom [2] - Musk hopes to achieve full rocket reusability with Starship this year, which could reduce space - entry costs by 100 times to below $100 per pound [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2] - Wash's proposed combination of rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in Fed policy, creating expectations of strong liquidity contraction for equity assets [2]