金信期货日刊-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in precious metals is due to forced liquidation and margin hikes triggered by the initial spark of the Wash nomination, with Shanghai silver expected to be volatile and bearish in the short - term. A - shares are expected to continue adjusting, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies. Gold is likely to remain volatile, so caution is advised. Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, and a volatile approach is recommended. Glass is expected to turn volatile and bearish in the short - term. Methanol trading will likely focus on overseas situation developments. Pulp futures are in a range - bound trend [3][5][10][12][15][19][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Silver - Core decline drivers include regulatory strict control (the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin to 18% and limited opening positions to 800 lots), a hawkish macro - environment (the Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75% and Powell's hawkish stance), profit - taking due to a previous over 30% increase and a 12% reduction in CFTC non - commercial net long positions, and the substitution effect of copper for silver. In the short - term (1 - 2 weeks), it is volatile and bearish; in the medium - term (1 - 3 months), the price may recover under certain conditions. Operation advice is to avoid blind bottom - fishing and short at resistance levels [3]. 3.2 A - shares - The overall A - share market declined unilaterally with significantly reduced trading volume. Technically, there is a need for further adjustment at the daily - line level, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [5]. 3.3 Gold - Gold prices continued to fall sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10]. 3.4 Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the domestic demand support from real estate and infrastructure is weak. Technically, it closed lower today, and a volatile approach is recommended, paying attention to the lower platform support [12][13]. 3.5 Glass - The daily melting volume changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, it rose and then fell today, and a short - term volatile and bearish approach is adopted [15][16]. 3.6 Methanol - Fundamentally, the state of both supply and demand reduction does not support the market. Although the reduction in imports is gradually being realized, the negative impact of coastal olefin plant shutdowns has also occurred as expected. The de - stocking progress is average, and the relatively high port inventory suppresses the market. Overseas geopolitical uncertainties remain, especially the situation in Iran is undetermined, so short - term trading will likely focus on overseas situation developments [19]. 3.7 Pulp - The pulp spot market is operating stably, with some pulp and paper mills undergoing maintenance shutdowns. The domestic port inventory is still under pressure, and the downstream demand for base paper lacks the driving force to increase, mainly maintaining rigid procurement. As the production cost decreases, the paper mills' gross profit has rebounded. The pulp futures have shown a range - bound trend recently [21].