流动性和机构行为周度观察：资金相对平稳跨月，同业存单利率横盘-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net injection of 58.05 billion yuan, and the treasury cash fixed - deposit injection was 15 billion yuan. From January 26 - February 1, 2026, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) was overall flat, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From February 2 - 8, 2026, the expected net payment of government bonds is 390.4 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 169.7 billion yuan. On January 30, 2026, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.32 years and 0.16 years week - on - week respectively [2]. - At the end of the month, the central bank had a net injection of 7 - day reverse repurchases. In February, 1.5 trillion yuan of medium - long - term liquidity will mature. The impact on the capital market in February may mainly come from the increasing cash withdrawal by residents before the Spring Festival, but the central bank is expected to smooth short - term disturbances, and the capital market is expected to cross the Spring Festival relatively smoothly [6]. - The capital interest rate increased marginally and crossed the month smoothly. The net financing scale of government bonds increased. The maturity yield of NCDs was overall flat, and the net financing amount continued to be negative [7][8]. - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. The durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased marginally [9]. Summary by Directory Capital Market - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 58.05 billion yuan; the treasury cash fixed - deposit injection was 15 billion yuan; the MLF matured 20 billion yuan, and 90 billion yuan was injected this month, with a total net injection of 70 billion yuan. In February, the 3M and 6M repurchase - style reverse repurchase maturities are 70 billion and 50 billion yuan respectively, and the MLF maturity is 30 billion yuan, with a total medium - long - term liquidity maturity of 1.5 trillion yuan [6]. - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 0.3 and 3.7 basis points respectively compared with January 19 - 23, 2026; the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 8.4 and 8.7 basis points respectively [7]. - From January 26 - February 1, 2026, the net financing amount of government bonds was about 515.03 billion yuan, an increase of about 268.5 billion yuan compared with January 19 - 25, 2026. From February 2 - 8, 2026, the expected net financing amount of government bonds is about 390.4 billion yuan [7]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of January 30, 2026, the 1M and 3M NCD maturity yields increased by 4.5 and 0.2 basis points respectively compared with January 23, 2026; the 1Y NCD maturity yield was flat. The NCD yield entered a consolidation phase after two weeks of recovery. There may still be room for the NCD yield to decline, but short - term pre - Spring Festival capital market fluctuations may hinder the realization of the decline [8]. - From January 26 - February 1, 2026, the net financing amount of NCDs was about - 51.3 billion yuan. The expected maturity repayment amount from February 2 - 8, 2026 is 169.7 billion yuan, and the previous week's maturity repayment amount was 428.4 billion yuan. The NCD maturity scale in February is about 1.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.46 trillion yuan month - on - month [8]. Institutional Behavior - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.68%, compared with 107.81% from January 19 - 23, 2026. On January 30 and January 23, 2026, the estimated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market were about 107.41% and 107.68% respectively [9]. - On January 30, 2026, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.02 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32 years, at the 68.0% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.45 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 years, at the 15.0% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [9].