渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.03）-20260203

Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights that public fiscal expenditure in 2025 focused on livelihood, technology, and environmental protection, with total public budget revenue at 21,604.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while expenditure reached 28,739.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1% [2] - The government fund budget revenue was 5,770.4 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 11.3% to 11,287.4 billion yuan [2] - Public fiscal income showed a negative growth primarily due to non-tax revenue, while tax revenue achieved positive growth, with major tax categories (VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax) transitioning from negative to positive growth [3] - Public fiscal expenditure in the livelihood sector accounted for over 38% of total expenditure, significantly higher than the average of the past five years, with a notable increase in technology spending [4] - The completion ratio for the national general public budget revenue was 98.3%, lower than the average of the past five years, while the expenditure completion ratio was 96.8% [4] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 was reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with both production and new orders indices declining [8] - The production index fell by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index dropped by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, reflecting insufficient effective demand [9] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also decreased to 49.4%, with the construction sector experiencing a significant drop due to seasonal factors [10] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.8%, entering the contraction zone, primarily due to the decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [10] Fund Research - The report notes that the public fund market experienced significant outflows, with a net outflow of 298.1 billion yuan from the ETF market, particularly from stock ETFs [12] - The average performance of equity funds showed a decline, with quantitative funds experiencing the largest drop of 1.10% [13] - New fund issuance increased, with 45 new funds launched, raising a total of 48.27 billion yuan, indicating a slight recovery in market interest [14]