商品氛围急转直下，胶价跟随回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the entire industry is provided in the report. However, individual outlooks for each commodity are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to trade sideways [6]. - Protein Meal: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to trade sideways [9]. - Corn and Starch: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [12]. - Hogs: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [17]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. - Cotton: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [20]. - Sugar: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [21]. - Pulp: Expected to trade sideways [22]. - Double - Gum Paper: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. - Logs: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has turned negative recently, affecting the prices of various agricultural products. - Different agricultural products are influenced by a combination of macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal patterns [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - View: Macro sentiment has weakened, leading to a significant correction in oil prices. - Logic: Crude oil decline and overall commodity market weakness have affected sentiment. For soybeans, Argentina's drought may reduce production, while the US biodiesel policy is yet to be finalized. Palm oil lacks new positive news after the previous rally. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to gradually recover. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to trade sideways. Consider buying on dips for hedging [6]. Protein Meal - View: Market sentiment is weak, and both soybean and rapeseed meals are trading lower. - Logic: Internationally, the macro environment has cooled, and the US soybean export is weak, while Brazil's harvest is increasing. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal is under pressure, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to improve. - Outlook: Both soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to trade sideways [8][9]. Corn and Starch - View: Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and both futures and spot prices are trading weakly. - Logic: Downstream stocking is almost finished, and policy - grain auctions have lower trading rates. There are marginal negative factors such as increased upstream sales, sufficient downstream inventory, and the impact of imported grains. - Outlook: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [9][11][12]. Hogs - View: At the beginning of the month, the slaughter volume is slightly reduced, but inventory pressure remains. - Logic: In the short - term, large hogs will be slaughtered as the Spring Festival approaches. In the medium - term, supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand and inventory show certain changes. - Outlook: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. Natural Rubber - View: The commodity atmosphere has turned negative, and rubber prices have followed suit. - Logic: The previous rally was driven by macro factors, and there has been no change in fundamentals. The current trading is mainly influenced by macro factors. Supply is relatively abundant, and the demand has not seen large - scale restocking. The most obvious negative factor is rapid inventory accumulation. - Outlook: Although fundamental variables are limited, market attention has increased, and the market is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [15][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - View: The medium - term logic remains unchanged. - Logic: The market was affected by the overall commodity sentiment, but the medium - term core logic of tight supply of butadiene in H1 2026 remains. - Outlook: The supply - demand situation of butadiene is expected to improve, but short - term adjustments are needed. It is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. Cotton - View: It has adjusted downward following macro expectations, but the downward space is expected to be limited. - Logic: Supply - side processing is nearing completion, demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace. In the long - term, the market is expected to be tight - balanced in 25/26, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decline. - Outlook: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. Consider buying on dips [20]. Sugar - View: It is expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. - Logic: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with major producers expected to increase production. - Outlook: Consider short - selling on rallies [21]. Pulp - View: While most commodities have declined significantly, pulp has shown resistance. - Logic: The overall commodity market has affected pulp, but its decline is relatively limited. Demand is seasonally weakening, and there are more negative factors, but the increase in import costs provides some support. - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways [22]. Double - Gum Paper - View: The decline in the commodity market has put pressure on double - gum paper. - Logic: The market is following the macro trend. Before the Spring Festival, there is no clear upward or downward driver, with abundant supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support. - Outlook: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. Logs - View: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the market is trading strongly. - Logic: The expected increase in the next - period foreign quotation and the decrease in arrivals at major ports have led to a stronger spot market. There are also potential positive factors in the delivery aspect. - Outlook: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 4. Commodity Index Data - On February 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was 2420.95, down 3.75%. The commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%, and the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62%. - The agricultural products index was 936.74 on February 2, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a 5 - day decline of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.40%, and a YTD increase of 0.40% [185][187].