建材行业报告（2026.01.26-2026.02.01）：涨价预期提升，关注节后需求复苏落地情况

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The cyclical sector performed well recently, with price increase expectations rising. The construction materials sector is expected to see significant valuation elasticity in 2026, with waterproofing, coatings, and cement entering a phase of improved prosperity. Various categories such as gypsum boards, pipes, and glass are anticipated to reach price turning points in 2026, supported by expectations of recovery in real estate and the economy. Short-term demand is currently weak, with a focus on post-Spring Festival demand and price increases [4][5] - Cement demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with overall demand still declining. The housing market remains weak, while infrastructure demand shows significant regional differentiation driven by policy. The civil market exhibits relatively rigid demand. In the medium term, cement production capacity is expected to decline under policies limiting overproduction, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization and profit elasticity [4][5] - The glass industry is experiencing sustained demand pressure due to real estate impacts, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement. Supply-side adjustments, including cold repairs of production lines, have occurred, but overall supply-demand pressures remain, leading to expectations of price stability at low levels [5][16] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement demand is gradually entering a seasonal downturn, with a 6.6% year-on-year decline in December 2025 production, totaling 144 million tons. The housing market remains weak, and infrastructure demand is regionally differentiated, with civil market demand being relatively rigid [9] Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement and high inventory levels among intermediaries. Despite recent cold repairs of production lines, supply-demand pressures persist, leading to expectations of continued low price fluctuations [5][16] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is seeing weak demand as manufacturers focus on cash flow. However, the electronic yarn segment is experiencing growth driven by AI industry demand, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price [5] Consumer Building Materials - The industry has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price space. The sector is strongly advocating for price increases, with waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards issuing price increase notices. Profitability improvements are expected for leading companies in 2026 [5]