20260202多资产配置周报：提名沃什不改美元信用弱化格局-20260203

Group 1 - The report highlights that the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman does not change the current weakening of the US dollar credit structure, despite causing short-term market volatility [7][19][21] - Domestic economic indicators show a decline in pre-holiday activity, with the manufacturing PMI for January at 49.3%, indicating a return to contraction territory [15][19] - The report anticipates that the focus on "strong supply and weak demand" will bring more domestic consumption and investment highlights in 2026, despite current internal demand being insufficient [15][19] Group 2 - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75% aligns with market expectations, reflecting a more optimistic view of the US economy [17] - The CME Group has raised margin requirements for precious metals, indicating a crowded trading structure that needs to digest the impact of short-term trading conditions [20] - The report suggests that while gold and commodities have long-term allocation value, they must first absorb the effects of short-term over-exuberance in trading sentiment [21][43] Group 3 - The report indicates that A-shares, gold, and commodities continue to show strong trends, while US stocks exhibit overall volatility [22][36] - Short-term uncertainties for gold and commodities are on the rise, with significant increases in volatility observed [29][36] - The report concludes that while domestic equities are relatively favored in the current environment, gold and commodities still hold potential for long-term investment [21][43]