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Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market has been affected by macro factors such as the Fed's interest rate decision, the nomination of the next Fed chair, and changes in the US dollar index. There was a panic sell - off in non - ferrous metals, but short - term panic has been released. If precious metals stop falling or base metals stabilize, there may be opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. In the medium term, due to the expected weak US dollar and supply - side disturbances, copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend. In the long term, the potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply - related issues still support the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have their own characteristics. For example, copper prices have dropped significantly due to the rebound of the US dollar index, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is positive; alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as the expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply; aluminum prices have corrected significantly due to fluctuating capital sentiment, but are expected to be volatile and upward in the short - to medium - term [1][2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Current situation: In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1155300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.68%. On February 2, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 160 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. The social copper inventory was 335900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5500 tons. The spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 50.2 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - Logic: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair led to a rapid rise in the US dollar index and a large adjustment in copper prices. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, and the spot TC of copper concentrate continues to decline. The long - term processing fee for copper mines in 2026 is at a record low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. Terminal demand is weak during the off - season, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - Outlook: The copper price is expected to be volatile and upward in the medium - and long - term [8]. Alumina - Current situation: On January 29, 2026, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2402 tons [8][9]. - Logic: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. The current average spot price is much lower than at the end of last year, and high - cost inland production capacity faces losses, leading to an intensified expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is insufficient in reality, and the prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the price support. The futures price is stronger than the spot price, but there is also pressure above [9]. - Outlook: The alumina price is expected to be volatile [9]. Aluminum - Current situation: On February 2, 2026, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23723 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 922 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 829000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 267000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14000 tons. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 150459 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5388 tons [10][12][13]. - Logic: The US January interest rate meeting was neutral, and Trump's nomination of Warsh as the next Fed chair reduced short - term risk appetite, but the macro expectation is expected to remain positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. Overseas, the Indonesian project is in line with expectations, but there are still constraints on medium - term supply expansion. The weekly initial operating rate has decreased, and high prices suppress demand. The exchange's aluminum ingot delivery has expanded, and the weekly social inventory has continued to accumulate [13]. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and upward in the short - to medium - term, and the price center is expected to rise in the medium - term [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Current situation: On February 2, 2026, the price of ADC12 was 23300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 400 yuan/ton [14]. - Logic: The price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, and the supply is tight in the short - term, providing strong cost support. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the medium - term tax return policy and tax transfer may still constrain supply. The policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues, but the subsidy has decreased. High prices suppress downstream demand in the short - term, and the inventory has accumulated [15]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be volatile and upward in the short - to medium - term [15]. Zinc - Current situation: On February 2, 2026, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 15 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc was - 15 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc was - 50 yuan/ton. As of February 2, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 111200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3800 tons [16]. - Logic: The Fed's January interest rate decision was in line with expectations, but Trump's nomination of the next Fed chair led to a change in the macro expectation. The decline in zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, but the supply of zinc ore is still tight in the short - term, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand expectation is average [17]. - Outlook: The zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [17]. Lead - Current situation: On February 2, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10025 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25 yuan/ton), and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of 1 lead ingots was 16575 - 16675 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 225 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 39000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 29418 tons, unchanged from the previous period [19]. - Logic: The spot premium has decreased, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead has remained stable. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the profit of secondary lead smelting has narrowed, resulting in a slight decrease in production. The orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly, while the orders for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high, but it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [19]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to be volatile [19]. Nickel - Current situation: On February 2, 2026, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai nickel were 46574 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 302 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285528 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 756 tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1045 - 1075 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the 30th [20]. - Logic: The supply of nickel is still under pressure as the domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in December, and the production of MIHP, ferronickel, and nickel ice in Indonesia remained high. The demand has entered the traditional off - season. The stainless steel production has increased slightly due to profit repair, but the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline. Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the nickel ore quota in 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations [20]. - Outlook: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and upward, and continuous tracking of Indonesia's policy changes is needed [20]. Stainless Steel - Current situation: On February 2, 2026, the inventory of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts was 43758 tons, a month - on - month increase of 239 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 830 yuan/ton to the stainless steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1045 - 1075 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the 30th [21]. - Logic: The price of nickel iron has recovered, and the cost of stainless steel still has some support. The stainless steel production decreased in December, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the terminal demand remains cautious. The social inventory has slightly accumulated, and there may still be pressure on inventory during the off - season [21]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and upward, and continuous tracking of Indonesia's policy changes is needed [22]. Tin - Current situation: On February 2, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged at 7095 tons, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 30 tons to 8524 tons, and the Shanghai tin positions decreased by 3262 lots to 92297 lots. The average spot price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 428550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10150 yuan/ton [22]. - Logic: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply problem in Wa State may be alleviated, but the supply in Indonesia is still restricted in the short - term, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo exacerbates supply concerns. In the future, the supply of tin ore is tightening, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The processing fee of tin concentrate has increased, reflecting the increased financial pressure of some smelters. The demand for tin in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries continues to rise, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt [22]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to be volatile and upward in the medium - and long - term, but short - term price fluctuations need to be watched out for [23]. Market Monitoring - On February 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities, the specialty index (including the commodity 20 - index and the industrial products index), and the sector index (non - ferrous metals index) all showed different degrees of decline. The non - ferrous metals index had a daily decline of - 5.11%, a 5 - day decline of - 4.88%, and a 1 - month increase of + 0.88% and the same increase since the beginning of the year [150][152].