黑色建材日报 2026-02-03-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - building materials market is currently in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. In the short term, it will mainly show range - bound fluctuations, and the trend opportunities are not clear yet. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and possible marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. However, in the short term, factors such as the sharp adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the new Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of the US federal government may suppress the overall market sentiment [8][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.95%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 14,841 tons, a decrease of 2,442 tons compared to the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7841 million lots, an increase of 49,987 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,261 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 199,447 tons, an increase of 9,124 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.4988 million lots, a decrease of 30,859 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate in the bottom range. The rebar production remained high, the apparent demand decreased seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, and the inventory started to accumulate, but the overall increase was still controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, the production was moderately high, and the inventory continued to decline slightly. The black - building materials market is in a bottom - game stage with both long and short factors at play. In the short term, it will mainly show range - bound fluctuations [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.07% (-8.50). The open interest changed by -20,544 lots to 520,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 874,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.93 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded month - on - month. The shipments from Australia decreased slightly, while those from Brazil increased significantly. Among the mainstream mines, Vale had a more significant increase. The shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly. The near - term arrivals remained basically stable. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production according to the Steel Union's data was 227,980 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. Some blast furnaces in certain regions were still undergoing annual inspections, and the复产 of blast furnaces was mainly due to the normal resumption after the end of maintenance. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years, exerting pressure on the absolute price. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills continued to rise, and the pre - holiday procurement and replenishment by steel mills continued. In the short term, the support for iron ore prices is relatively solid, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' replenishment and hot metal production rhythm [5]. 3.3 Ferrous Alloys 3.3.1 Market Information - On February 2nd, the main contract of manganese - silicon (SM605) closed down 0.65% at 5,834 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 5,780 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5,970 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 136 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.64% at 5,624 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon remains unfavorable, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors are mostly reflected in the price and are not the main contradictions in the future market. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, with some improvement due to the maintenance and conversion of some factories. The future market of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon will be mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black - building materials market and the cost - push from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies. Attention should be paid to possible restrictions on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke 3.4.1 Market Information - On February 2nd, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) initially rose by more than 3% but then fell, closing down 1.21% at 1,141.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1,584.8 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1,395 yuan/ton, with a premium of 253.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of coke (J2605) also showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, closing down 2.38% at 1,680.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1,725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 45 yuan/ton over the futures [11]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - The commodity market experienced significant fluctuations last week, mainly due to the appointment of the new Fed chairman, which led to expectations of a marginal tightening of the denominator. The previous strong lithium carbonate also declined significantly, suppressing the overall commodity sentiment. However, the black - building materials sector was supported by the relaxation of the "three red lines" in the real estate industry and the successful extension of Vanke's debt. In the short term, the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Although the downstream is still replenishing inventory, the coking plants' coking coal inventory is approaching the level of the same period last year, and the steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is low. The short - term replenishment is not expected to drive the price strongly. The firmness of Australian coal prices and the power shortage in the US may have a positive impact on sentiment. Considering the "scarcity" premium of coking coal resources, the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [13][14]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8,795 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.62% (-55). The weighted contract open interest changed by -16,591 lots to 336,548 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 405 yuan/ton for the main contract. The spot price of 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 55 yuan/ton for the main contract [16]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 47,050 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.19% (-90). The weighted contract open interest changed by -5,716 lots to 70,398 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM was 49 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 51.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of 4,250 yuan/ton for the main contract [18][19]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The price fluctuated yesterday. In terms of supply, Sichuan's production enterprises maintained the furnace - shutdown state last week, and enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reduced production. The weekly output continued to decline. In terms of demand, a leading polysilicon enterprise shut down completely, and some other enterprises reduced production. The weekly output of silicone continued to decline slightly. The overall demand for industrial silicon was weak. In February, the production reduction plan of a large factory in Xinjiang will be implemented. If half of the furnaces are shut down, the supply - demand balance sheet of industrial silicon in February is expected to improve, and the sustainability depends on the shutdown duration. In the short term, there is an expectation of improved supply - demand, and the supply contraction provides strong support for the price. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the weakening downstream, the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of the large factory's production reduction and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [17]. - Polysilicon: The spot price of silicon material is in a stalemate, and market information is chaotic. Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of high prices, some enterprises try to lower prices, and futures - spot traders sell at low prices, resulting in a decline in the actual transaction price. The silicon wafer segment also faces pressure, as the loosening of silicon material prices weakens the cost support, and some enterprises sell at low prices. The terminal component price is rising, and the battery segment's price is rising due to non - silicon costs and overseas demand. The supply of polysilicon is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. Policy expectations are expected to support the price, and the anti - monopoly red line is being strengthened. The open interest and liquidity of the polysilicon futures have fallen to relatively low levels since listing. Affected by the loosening of the spot price, the futures price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the follow - up feedback of terminal demand and possible new policy adjustments [20]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1,056 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, unchanged. The price of large - size glass in North China was 1,020 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1,110 yuan, unchanged. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million boxes, a decrease of 651,800 boxes (-1.22%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 22,822 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 61,396 lots [22]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1,203 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 0.08% (-1). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,163 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5442 million tons, an increase of 23,000 tons (1.22%), including 716,100 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 19,400 tons, and 828,100 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 3,600 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 9,504 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 2,330 lots [24]. 3.6.2 Strategy Views - Glass: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream processing plants are gradually winding up, market demand is weakening, and the overall trading activity has declined. Purchases are mainly for immediate needs, and inventory replenishment is almost over. In terms of supply, a production line has been restarted and ignited recently, and there are no cold - repair plans, so the overall production capacity remains stable. The demand is limited due to the Spring Festival seasonality. The market lacks strong driving factors, and there is a general wait - and - see attitude. Manufacturers are not willing to adjust prices and mainly focus on stable - price sales and inventory reduction. The float glass market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1,025 - 1,125 yuan/ton [23]. - Soda ash: The supply in the industry remains loose. The equipment of enterprises such as Jiangsu Huachang has resumed operation after a short - term shutdown, and new production capacity is gradually being released, so the supply continues to increase. The demand is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly make purchases for immediate needs. Only a few enterprises replenish inventory moderately before the festival, and there is a strong wait - and - see attitude, with limited order growth. The current supply - demand structure of the soda ash market is relatively loose, and downstream procurement is cautious, so the price lacks upward momentum. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and steadily in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1,160 - 1,250 yuan/ton [25].