国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade weakly in resonance with market sentiment [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to trade weakly as cost expectations loosen, and silicomanganese is expected to trade weakly in resonance with commodity sentiment [2][12]. - Coke is expected to trade at high levels, and coking coal is expected to trade at high levels as events unfold [2][18][19]. - Thermal coal supply and demand are in a weak balance, and prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][23]. - Logs are expected to see a slight price increase [2][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07%. The open interest decreased by 20,544 to 520,684 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased, and some basis and price spreads changed [4]. - Macro and Industry News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - Fundamental Data: In the week of January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.8 million tons. Rebar inventory increased by 23.43 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 9.12 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.45 million tons [8][10]. - Macro and Industry News: There were various production, inventory, and price data from the China Iron and Steel Association, and an accident at Baotou Steel's plate plant. Also, BHP's iron ore production hit a record high, and China implemented export license management for some steel products [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Various price spreads changed [12]. - Macro and Industry News: The proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity prices will be increased. There were price quotes and production data of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and manganese ore from different sources. River Steel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price decreased, and manganese ore inventory increased [12][15][16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2605) and coke (J2605) decreased. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke types remained stable. Some basis and price spreads changed [19]. - Macro and Industry News: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased, and the coking coal online auction had a higher failure rate and mixed price changes [19]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Thermal Coal - Fundamental Data: There were price data of thermal coal from different regions, including origin, port, and overseas prices. The February long - term contract prices of thermal coal in some regions decreased [23]. - Macro and Industry News: The port market was stable with weak trading. Some Indonesian coal mines may have a significant production cut. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the power - generation - side capacity price mechanism [23][24]. Logs - Fundamental Data: There were price, trading volume, and open - interest data of log futures contracts. Spot prices of various log types in different markets had different fluctuations [25]. - Macro and Industry News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [28].