白糖周报：白糖市场低位震荡反弹，强供应与强成本支撑博弈-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The current sugar market is in a low - level oscillating phase under strong supply pressure and strong cost support. The core contradiction lies in the game between the supply pressure brought by the northern hemisphere's production increase and the domestic pressing peak, and the cost support and short - covering triggered after the price falls below the cost line. In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Weekly Review: The 11 - sugar continuous contract closed at 14.26 cents/pound, down 3.19% week - on - week. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract closed at 5,248 yuan/ton, up 1.31% week - on - week. The spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all increased slightly. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 34.55% to 72 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.72% to 14,119, and the effective forecast decreased by 32.58% to 89. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 2.39% to 14,208. The non - commercial long positions in CFTC decreased by 0.26%, short positions increased by 6.80%, and the net long positions decreased by 5.94%. The proportion of bullish sentiment in the Zhengzhou sugar market doubled to 20%, and the proportion of bearish sentiment decreased by 10 percentage points to 50% [4]. - Domestic Futures and Spot: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - Raw Sugar Futures: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. 2. Fundamental Analysis - China's Sugar Production and Sales: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Main Producing Areas in China: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Main Producing Areas in China: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - China's Sugar Import and Export: The import profit margin has expanded. The profit of Thai sugar within the quota increased by 2.74% to 1,798 yuan/ton, and the profit outside the quota increased by 9.1% to 707 yuan/ton [2]. - Main Importing Countries of China's Sugar: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - Cost and Profit of China's Sugar Imports: The processing cost of sugar from Vietnam and Thailand within and outside the quota decreased slightly. The import profit increased, especially the profit outside the quota. The Thai sugar's premium increased by 17.98%, and the shipping cost remained unchanged [28]. 3. International Market Fundamentals - Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - Sugar Production in Brazil: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - Ethanol Production in Brazil: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - Sugar Import and Export in Brazil: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - International Raw Sugar Premium and Shipping Cost: There is no detailed content provided in the given text.