宁证期货今日早评-20260203

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of coke is difficult to increase significantly due to environmental protection and profit factors, and the downstream steel mills' resumption of production is still expected. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, and the spot price may stabilize after the increase, with the futures price following the cost - end coking coal [1]. - The continuous improvement of the US economic data supports the fundamentals of silver, but silver is greatly affected by gold. With the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, silver may fluctuate with gold in the short term and oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - The supply - demand of iron ore remains relatively loose. The market lacks supply - demand drivers, and the futures price is mainly driven by macro - expectations, continuing to oscillate in a range in the short term [3]. - The demand for steel will continue to shrink during the off - season and approaching the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand pressure before the festival increases. The steel price may oscillate weakly in the short term [3]. - The short - term downward space of hog prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - term long positions, and focus on the slaughter volume of the breeding end and the degree of culling of sows [4]. - The palm oil futures price is at a high level, and the spot price has difficulty rising. With increased domestic purchases and macro - economic factors, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions, wait and not chase high prices [4]. - The soybean meal market has weak spot performance during the Spring Festival stocking period. Due to large - scale feed enterprises' pre - stocking and high oil - mill operating rates, the price may decline in the short term, and caution is recommended [5]. - With the easing of US - Iran tensions, the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, and warmer climate, it is recommended to short crude oil at high prices in the short term [6]. - The supply of PX is expected to remain high in February, while the demand is weak, and the cost - end crude oil is weak. PX should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [6]. - The domestic methanol market has high production and falling demand, with inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The domestic soda ash market oscillates at a low level, with supply slightly decreasing and low procurement enthusiasm from downstream enterprises. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [8]. - The rubber market has entered a transition period, with inventory returning to a medium level. The downstream operating rate is falling seasonally, and it is recommended to be short at a high level in the short term [9]. - The plastic market has sufficient supply, rising production - enterprise inventory, and weak demand. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [10]. - The copper market may face a regional smelting bottleneck, and the long - term supply - side structure remains unchanged. Short - term volatility should be vigilant [11]. - The aluminum market has overseas new - capacity plans, but short - term supply is affected by the capacity ceiling. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment and maintain high volatility [11]. - The short - term treasury bond market has a loose capital supply but is affected by the central bank's fund - withdrawal operation. It is expected to oscillate [12]. - The gold market may see a weakening of geopolitical support, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, with attention to geopolitical disturbances [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coke - Mysteel statistics show that the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 70.75% (down 0.66%), the daily coke output is 49.51 tons (down 0.46 tons), the coke inventory is 43.99 tons (up 1.74 tons), the coking coal inventory is 1035.34 tons (up 40.13 tons), and the coking coal available days are 15.7 days (up 0.75 days) [1]. Silver - The US January ISM manufacturing PMI index rose to 52.6, much higher than the expected 48.5, reaching a new high since August 2022 [1]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 17758.26 tons (up 261.73 tons), the daily port clearance volume is 347.71 tons (up 27.19 tons), and the number of ships at the port is 109 (down 13) [3]. Steel - On February 2, the domestic steel market oscillated weakly. The ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet decreased by 20 to 2920 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm third - grade earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities decreased by 6 to 3310 yuan/ton [3]. Hog - On February 2, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 130.12, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 133.04. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.44 yuan/kg (down 0.9% from last Friday), and the price of eggs was 8.69 yuan/kg (up 0.8% from last Friday) [4]. Palm Oil - Indonesia has set the reference price of crude palm oil in February at $918.47 per ton, higher than $915.64 per ton in January, and the export tax will remain at $74 per ton [4]. Soybean Meal - As of last Friday, the national port soybean inventory was 671.3 tons (down 50.20 tons from last week and up 61.18 tons from last year). On February 2, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased, with Tianjin at 3160 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Shandong at 3060 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Jiangsu at 3040 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and Guangdong at 3040 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [5]. Crude Oil - OPEC + countries' crude oil daily output in November was 3762.5 barrels (50.5 barrels lower than the target level), and in December it was 3744 barrels (78 barrels lower than the set level). European natural gas futures prices fell by more than 12% on Monday to about 34.3 euros per megawatt - hour [5][6]. PX - In January, the average domestic PX load was 89.8% (up 1.7% from December and 4% from the same period last year), and the average Asian PX load was 81.1% (up 2% from December and 3.3% from the same period last year) [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton). The port inventory is 147.21 tons (up 1.46 tons), the production - enterprise inventory is 42.41 tons (down 1.42 tons), the order backlog is 26.57 tons (up 2.74 tons), the domestic weekly production capacity utilization rate is 89.92% (down 1.18% month - on - month), and the downstream total production capacity utilization rate is 69.22% (down 2.86% week - on - week) [7]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1227 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton), the weekly output is 78.31 tons (up 1.48% month - on - month), the manufacturer's total inventory is 154.42 tons (up 1.51% week - on - week), the float glass operating rate is 71.86% (up 0.24 percentage points week - on - week), the average price of float glass is 1107 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), and the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 5256.4 ten - thousand heavy boxes (down 1.22% week - on - week) [8]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 59.1 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 53.5 Thai baht/kg. In the first 11 months of 2025, the US imported 263,231 ten - thousand tires (up 5.2% year - on - year). Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in 2025 were 167.2 tons (up 1.8% year - on - year), and exports to China were 39.8 tons (up 106% year - on - year) [9]. Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 6866 yuan/ton (down 59 yuan/ton), the weekly output is 32.88 tons (up 0.59% week - on - week), the production - enterprise inventory is 12.64 tons (up 9.63% week - on - week), the daily production profit of oil - based production is - 719 yuan/ton, and the average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products decreased by 2.3% week - on - week [10]. Copper - Glencore set a January 31 deadline for pollution rectification of its Horne smelter in Canada, warning that the operation of the smelter and the Montreal refinery (with an annual output of over 30 tons) would be at risk if the deadlock continued [11]. Aluminum - China's Bosai Group plans to invest about $1.5 billion in an electrolytic aluminum project in East Java, Indonesia [11]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - On February 2, the central bank carried out 75 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The same day, 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 75.5 billion yuan [12]. Gold - Iran's President ordered the start of nuclear negotiations with the US, and it is expected that US envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi will meet in Istanbul, Turkey on February 6 to discuss a "possible nuclear agreement" [12].