格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the collapse of precious metals and systemic risks on February 2nd, the prices of vegetable oils fell across the board. Although the short - term adjustment continues, the medium - term trend may rise after getting support because the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil will be announced at the end of March. It is recommended to close all previous long positions but not to short, and wait for a new buying point after the market stabilizes [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), affected by the abundant production pressure and the fading of macro - narrative, the US soybeans are under pressure and falling back. It is recommended to close long positions and hold short positions in the short - term, and maintain an oscillatory mindset in the medium - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 2nd, precious metals collapsed, and vegetable oil prices fell across the board. For example, the main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8092 yuan/ton, down 2.29% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 67,016 lots; the main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9014 yuan/ton, down 2.45% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 28,714 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US, Iran, and many Middle - Eastern countries are releasing signals of US - Iran negotiations, causing gold and silver to fluctuate greatly, driving down international crude oil prices, which dropped by 4% at the opening of the electronic trading session today [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal and giving up a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons [1]. - Malaysia lowered its reference price for crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The reference price in February is 3,846.84 Malaysian ringgit per ton (950 US dollars), compared with 3,946.17 Malaysian ringgit per ton in January with an export tariff of 9.5% [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases of 150,000 tons per month from South America from April to July 2026 [1]. - From January 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 15.28% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) up 0.11% month - on - month [1]. - From January 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 947,939 tons, an increase of 11.4% compared with 851,057 tons from December 1st to 20th [1]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a total biodiesel allocation of 15.65 billion liters in 2026, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, while the Non - PSO total allocation increased. Indonesia launched a B50 road test in December 2025, and the mandatory addition plan of B50 is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1][2]. - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, precious metals have stabilized, panic has gradually subsided, and international crude oil is still adjusting. However, the decline of US soybean oil has slowed down. In the short - term, the adjustment will continue, but in the medium - term, there may be room for an increase after getting support. The macro - narrative that previously supported the rise of vegetable oils has weakened, and the strong US dollar concept has emerged, causing precious metals to fall sharply and international crude oil to drop. The vegetable oil sector is affected, and it is recommended to close long positions and wait for a new buying point [1][2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, wait for a new buying point after the market stabilizes. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts such as Y2605, Y2609, P2605, etc. [2]. - For arbitrage trading, there is no recommendation for now [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 2nd, due to systemic risks, the prices of double - meal fell. For example, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton, down 0.61% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 67,829 lots; the main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2276 yuan/ton, down 0.48% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1401 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In January 2026, Brazil's soybean exports are estimated to be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 3.73 million tons, and a 238% increase compared with the same period last year [2]. - Brazil's 2025/26 annual soybean production is expected to be 181 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared with the December 22nd forecast. As of January 22nd, the soybean harvest progress was 4.9% [2][3]. - As of December 30th, Argentina's 2025/26 annual soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the growth of the sown soybeans was in good condition. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans reached 71.9% of the intended area [3]. - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,500 tons, and the contract volume decreased by 13.24% week - on - week. The domestic import - pressed rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume remained unchanged. The domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 343,500 tons compared with the previous week [3]. - On January 13th, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1,139,605.33 tons of imported soybeans, with a 100% transaction rate and a delivery date from March 1st to April 30th, 2026 [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the abundant production pressure and the fading of macro - narrative have put pressure on US soybeans, but the decline has narrowed. Domestically, the macro - capital sentiment has cooled, and foreign capital is gradually increasing short positions. The slow sales progress in Brazil and the pressure from the advancing harvest, combined with the high profit in spot - market crushing, may lead to a decrease in the discount. There are also rumors that the auction of imported soybeans may resume after the Spring Festival, and the customs may speed up the inspection process, which has prompted some long - position holders to take profits and put pressure on the market. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market trading pace has slowed down [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Close long positions in double - meal and hold short positions in the short - term. Do not expect a large - scale decline during the Spring Festival holiday, and maintain an oscillatory mindset in the medium - term. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts such as M2605, M2607, RM2605, etc. [3][4]. - For arbitrage trading, there is no recommendation for now [4].