格林期货早盘提示：棉花-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton industry is a bullish and volatile outlook [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Under the influence of the strengthening US dollar index and a bearish market sentiment for commodities, the ICE US cotton futures declined, with the main 03 contract settling at 62.67 cents, a 0.8% drop. As the Zhengzhou cotton price corrected, it entered an oscillation range before the holiday, with a short - term amplitude between 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton. Overall, the market's supply - demand imbalance persists, with most transactions being small, demand - driven orders. Market participants are cautiously optimistic about the post - holiday market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 62.67, down 50 points; 5 - month at 64.40, down 53 points; 7 - month at 66.10, down 45 points, with trading volume of about 90,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 599,538, and the open interest was 994,666. The settlement prices were 14,640 for the May contract, 14,745 for the September contract, and 15,120 for the January contract [2] 3.2 Important Information - On January 29, spinning enterprises in the southern Xinjiang Bazhou region purchased 31 - grade double - 29 machine - picked new cotton with less than 2.7% impurity from Xinjiang warehouses. The contract basis transaction price was 1,150 - 1,250 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 16,050 - 16,200 yuan/ton, up 50 - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - According to US Department of Commerce data, in November 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the US (seasonally adjusted) were $27.493 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.54% (the adjusted figure for the same period last year was $25.565 billion) and a month - on - month increase of 0.88% (the previous month was adjusted upwards to $27.254 billion) [2] - From January 16 - 22, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year upland cotton was 46,198 tons, a 51% decrease from the previous week and a 17% decrease from the four - week average; the shipment of upland cotton was 58,287 tons, a 37% increase from the previous week and a 61% increase from the four - week average [2] - So far this year, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 4.37 million tons of seed cotton, of which 34% is from Telangana. Converted at a lint percentage of 35%, the CCI's cumulative purchase is equivalent to about 1.53 million tons of lint cotton [2] - On January 29, the cotton yarn futures continued to increase in volume and decrease in open interest, with prices rising, and the spot prices slightly increased. Zhengzhou cotton remained stable, while cotton yarn futures rose significantly. In the spot market, most prices were stable with a few increases. Some spinning enterprises raised their quotes by 100 - 300 yuan/ton, while most maintained their quotes, mainly because there was pressure for the prices of medium - and low - count yarns to rise [2] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions for the 05 contract below 14,500 yuan/ton and gradually take profits at 15,000 yuan/ton [2]