宝城期货橡胶早报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Price Trends: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak; Overall: weakly running [1][5] - Core Logic: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas have entered the off - season, and Southeast Asian producing areas will also enter the low - production season. Downstream, domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. However, due to the signal of peace talks between the US and Iran, geopolitical risks have cooled, crude oil has weakened, and the bullish atmosphere in the domestic energy and chemical sector has diminished. The Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session on Monday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5] 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Price Trends: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak; Overall: weakly running [1][7] - Core Logic: The supply and demand of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, have recently tightened, boosting a significant price increase. Butadiene accounts for over 70% of the production cost of synthetic rubber, and the rigid increase in the cost side has laid a foundation for the futures price. Due to the signal of peace talks between the US and Iran, geopolitical risks have cooled, crude oil has weakened, and the bullish atmosphere in the domestic energy and chemical sector has diminished. The synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session on Monday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [7]