通信行业周报：光纤行业涨价趋势明确，关注 cpo 和光互联投资机会-20260203

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the optical fiber industry, indicating a projected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [4][33]. Core Insights - The optical interconnection sector shows strong performance expectations, with a focus on the transition opportunities from CPO/OIO technology. The optical fiber industry is experiencing a clear price increase trend, driven by demand from telecom operators and pre-holiday inventory needs [2][9]. - LightCounting forecasts that CPO technology shipments will begin scaling from 800G and 1.6T ports between 2026 and 2027, primarily for large cloud service providers. By 2029, the penetration rates for 800G, 1.6T, and 3.2T CPOs are expected to be 2.9%, 9.5%, and 50.6% respectively [8][9]. - Recent price increases in fiber optics are anticipated to continue due to heightened demand from telecom operators and upcoming procurement activities [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The optical interconnection sector is expected to maintain strong performance, with individual company variations but overall manageable conditions anticipated for 2026 [7]. - The appreciation of the RMB is impacting the optical interconnection sector, particularly for companies focused on overseas exports, with potential profit impacts estimated at under 5% for most, while some may see significant effects [7]. Investment Highlights - The industry has seen an increase in holding ratios, with valuations at historically high levels, reflecting positive expectations driven by the AI industry chain [23]. - AI is driving network upgrades, with strong overseas demand benefiting domestic core enterprises amid a global infrastructure wave [24]. - A new cycle of domestic AI infrastructure is emerging, with significant opportunities for leading companies in various segments [25]. - New connectivity solutions are expected to emerge in 2026, presenting additional investment opportunities [26]. - The demand for communication capabilities is increasing due to AI model training and applications, leading to rapid advancements in network innovation and technology applications [27]. Key Industry News - Corning has signed a long-term supply agreement worth $6 billion with Meta to support its data center expansion, highlighting the trend of strengthening domestic manufacturing and supply chains [10][11]. - NVIDIA has invested $2 billion in CoreWeave to enhance AI computing capabilities, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure development [12][13]. - Microsoft has launched its second-generation AI chip, Maia 200, aimed at optimizing AI inference costs and reducing reliance on NVIDIA [14][15]. - The personal AI assistant ClawdBot has gained significant traction, showcasing advancements in AI capabilities and user interaction [16][17]. - Microsoft and Meta reported substantial increases in capital expenditures, reflecting their commitment to expanding computing infrastructure [18][19].