格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector: Neutral [1] - Rubber series in the energy and chemical sector: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar market: External market ICE raw sugar is consolidating narrowly, with strong Indian sugar - making data pressuring prices. Some institutions are reducing sugar production forecasts for 2026/27, which may support long - term prices. The domestic sugar market has a weak trading atmosphere, and the short - term lacks fundamental and external market guidance [1]. - Rubber market: Natural rubber declined due to the overall fall of commodities, with upstream raw materials providing support and downstream tire enterprises' holidays dragging down capacity utilization. The long - term outlook is bullish. Synthetic rubber's cost - side support is limited, and it is affected by crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar 3.1.1 Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5207 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.78%, and 5197 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5222 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.80%, and 5212 yuan/ton at night [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - Guangxi's spot sugar price was 5252 yuan/ton yesterday, down 41 yuan/ton; sugar - making groups' quotes in Guangxi and Yunnan were adjusted down, and some processing sugar mills' quotes were also lowered [1]. - Stonex expects Brazil's mid - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 4070 tons, 80 tons less than the previous forecast, and ethanol production to be 36.5 billion liters, 400 million liters more than before [1]. - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, up 18.35% year - on - year, and the number of operating sugar mills increased by 14 [1]. - Green Pool expects the global sugar surplus in the 2026/27 season to drop to 156,000 tons [1]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 50 to 14,069 yesterday [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar is consolidating narrowly, pressured by strong Indian data, but production cuts may support long - term prices. - Domestic market: Zheng sugar declined yesterday and was weak at night. Pre - Spring Festival stocking is ending, and the market lacks guidance [1]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - SR605 should focus on the 5100 - 5300 range, with partial profit - taking for previous short positions and a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy [1]. Rubber Series 3.2.1 Market Quotes - As of February 2, RU2605 closed at 15,980 yuan/ton, down 2.32%; NR2603 closed at 12,925 yuan/ton, down 2.34%; BR2603 closed at 12,900 yuan/ton, down 3.66% [4]. 3.2.2 Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 59.1 baht/kg, and cup - lump price was 53.5 baht/kg yesterday [4]. - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.23%, with保税区 inventory up 3.34% and general trade inventory up 0.82% [4]. - Yesterday's full - latex price was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 2.17%; 20 - standard Thai rubber was 1925 US dollars/ton, down 1.79% [4]. - The price difference between RU and NR narrowed, as did the price difference between mixed standard rubber and RU [4]. - Yesterday's butadiene prices in Shandong and East China were in certain ranges, and the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in Shandong declined [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Natural rubber: Affected by the overall fall of commodities, it is supported by upstream raw materials but dragged down by downstream tire enterprises' holidays. The long - term outlook is bullish [4]. - Synthetic rubber: Short - term supply supports the market, but the acceptance of new supplies by downstream is average, and it is affected by crude oil prices [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Rubber series should focus on the lower support. Those not in the market can enter lightly after the adjustment [4].