宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-03-20260203

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly. The core logic is that geopolitical risks have cooled down, leading to a weakening and volatile trend in crude oil [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog - Time Cycle Definition: Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. - Price Calculation: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the daily - session closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - Strength Classification: A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weak - biased, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strong - biased, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong. The strong - biased/weak - biased classification only applies to intraday views [3][4]. - Crude Oil Market Analysis: Recently, US President Trump has frequently signaled geopolitical risks, with Greenland and Canada potentially being targets. However, due to the peace - talk signals between the US and Iran, geopolitical risks have cooled down, causing the premium of crude oil to retreat and weakening the bullish sentiment in the domestic energy - chemical sector. On the night of Monday this week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a volatile decline. Given the weakening of short - term Middle - East geopolitical sentiment and the possibility of a peace - talk agreement between the US and Iran, the expectation of a shortage in crude oil supply has decreased. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weakly volatile pattern on Tuesday [5].