动力煤：供需弱平衡，节前煤价以稳为主

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The power coal market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and coal prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival. The port market is stable with limited price fluctuations due to the supply - demand dual - weak pattern, while the origin market shows a narrow - range shock [1][2] - If the information about the reduction of Indonesian coal production is confirmed, it may strongly support and drive up the price of low - calorie Indonesian coal [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Origin Prices: Shanxi Datong 5500 is 568.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 56.0 yuan year - on - year), Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 is 532.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 35.0 yuan year - on - year), Shaanxi Yulin 5800 is 598.0 yuan/ton (2.0 yuan month - on - month, - 52.0 yuan year - on - year) [1] - Port Prices: Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 609.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 61.0 yuan year - on - year), Q5000 is 527.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 54.0 yuan year - on - year), Q4500 is 750.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 58.0 yuan year - on - year) [1] - Overseas Prices: Indonesian FOB Q3800 is 50.5 dollars/ton (0.2 dollars month - on - month, 1.5 dollars year - on - year), Australian FOB Q5500 is 75.9 dollars/ton (1.3 dollars month - on - month, - 3.1 dollars year - on - year) [1] - February Long - term Agreement Prices: Shanxi Q5500 is 517.0 yuan/ton (- 23.0 yuan month - on - month), Shaanxi Q5500 is 461.0 yuan/ton (- 22.0 yuan month - on - month), Mengxi Q5500 is 431.0 yuan/ton (- 22.0 yuan month - on - month) [1] Macro and Industry News - Port and Origin Market: On February 2, the port market was stable. Upstream quotes remained unchanged, downstream buyers mostly waited and watched, and trading was sluggish. The origin market showed mixed price trends. Some mines saw price increases due to stable long - term agreement transportation and year - end restocking demand, while others had price corrections [1][2] - Indonesian Coal: There is new progress in the RKAB approval of Indonesian coal, with some mines having an annual reduction of 20% - 60%. If confirmed, it may support and drive up the price of low - calorie Indonesian coal. The Indonesian coal mining association warns that production cuts may lead to mine closures [2][3] - Policy: On January 30, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Power Generation - side Capacity Price Mechanism", including adjusting coal - power capacity prices and optimizing the lower limit of the medium - and long - term market transaction price [2][3] Trend Strength - The power coal trend strength (based on the spot price of power coal at northern ports) is 0 [3]