棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 14,575 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.65% and a night - session close of 14,635 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase; CY2603 closed at 20,405 yuan/ton with a 0.44% decline and a night - session close of 20,435 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; ICE US cotton 3 closed at 62.8 cents/pound with a 0.49% decline [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: CF2605 trading volume was 599,538 lots, a decrease of 98,627 lots from the previous day, and open interest was 994,666 lots, a decrease of 16,081 lots; CY2603 trading volume was 5,807 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and open interest was 4,884 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipts: Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 10,325, an increase of 36, and effective forecasts were 1,191, an increase of 107; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged, and effective forecasts were 7, a decrease of 7 [1] - Spot Prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.51%; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.58%; Shandong was 16,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan or 0.76%; Hebei was 16,162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.49%; the 3128B index was 16,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113 yuan or 0.70%; the international cotton index M was 0.00 cents/pound, unchanged; pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,455 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan or 0.12%; the arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,396 yuan/ton, an increase of 369 yuan or 1.75% [1] - Price Spreads: The CF3 - 5 spread was not given, and the previous day's spread was 35 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan increase; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was not given, and the previous day's spread was 1,040 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: New cotton spot trading was average, with more point - price transactions for previously locked basis - difference spot. The basis was generally stable. The sales basis for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 was mostly at CF05 + 1150 or above, and a small amount was lower, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; for 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3 - 3.5, a small amount had a low basis at CF05 + 900 - 1000, and more had a sales basis at CF05 + 1000 or above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn was temporarily stable, and the shipment atmosphere was mostly light. Recently, some large factories reduced prices to clear inventory, while small and medium - sized factories sold at market prices. Some small factories had already taken holidays and shut down. Downstream weaving and dyeing factories were in the final stage of pre - holiday holidays, with a low operating rate. Rigid - demand procurement basically stopped, and there were few new orders in the market, with most transactions being sporadic replenishment orders [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures continued to decline yesterday. On the one hand, it was technically weak, and on the other hand, it was affected by the rising US dollar and the decline in the overall risk appetite of the commodity market [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]