PP：成本扰动较大，利润或趋修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - PP experiences significant cost disturbances, and its profit may tend to recover. The cost of crude oil and propane has declined substantially, and the internal valuation of olefins is differentiated. The supply and demand of existing inventory are more competitive, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss of PDH profit [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6714, with a daily decline of 1.61%. The trading volume was 749,904, and the open interest decreased by 20,289 [1] - Basis and Spread Changes: The basis of the 05 contract was - 154, the same as the previous day. The spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was - 26, up from - 33 the previous day [1] - Important Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6560, 6560, and 6800 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price dropped with the macro and cost. The upstream pre - sale pressure was not large, the basis was weakly stable, and the trading atmosphere was average. The downstream profit has recovered month - on - month, the start - up and orders have increased, but the end - of - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable. The PP US dollar market price remained stable, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China was not high, and the export trading was difficult to improve [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Cost Side: Crude oil and propane prices have回调 significantly, and the internal valuation of olefins is differentiated. The valuation of PE's internal and external and upstream profit ends is higher than that of PP [2] - Supply Side: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between supply and demand of existing inventory intensifies [2] - Demand Side: Downstream new orders follow up on a rigid - demand basis, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. The PDH profit at the cost end remains at a low level. Multiple PDH devices in South China have maintenance expectations, and a PP device in Northern Jiangsu plans to restart. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss of PDH profit [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]