LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑转弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The import profit of LLDPE has narrowed, the offer is limited, and the support from oil prices has weakened. The raw material end crude oil price has dropped significantly, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has recovered. The PE market has rebounded, but the downstream has not chased up to replenish stocks. The near - end downstream agricultural film has weakened, and the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. There are still supply - demand pressures before the Spring Festival due to high inventory and weakening demand [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 is 6878, with a daily decline of 1.94%, the trading volume is 885,291, and the position has decreased by 7,317 [1] - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of the 05 contract is - 158 (previous day: - 154), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 41 (previous day: - 55) [1] - Spot Price Data: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 6,720 yuan/ton, 6,880 yuan/ton, and 6,940 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price has declined, the upstream inventory has been transferred, the enterprise quotations remain stable, and the agency orders and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has shut down, and the standard product production is neutral. The downstream product profit has been compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The overseas offer has risen, the LL supply is scarce, the long - term import profit is open, but the importer's transactions have not increased significantly, and downstream factories are mostly cautious [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end crude oil price has dropped significantly, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has recovered. The PE market has rebounded, but the downstream has not chased up to replenish stocks. The near - end downstream agricultural film has weakened, and the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial production, the maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, some FD has switched back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure caused by high inventory and weakening demand before the Spring Festival still needs attention [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]