西南期货早间评论-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures may face pressure, and investors should be cautious [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations and economic resilience, the stock index's fluctuation center is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. Although gold's allocation and hedging values are favorable, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to significant speculation. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [12]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to fluctuate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [14]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern and may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [16]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to fluctuate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [19]. - Ferroalloys are in an overall oversupply situation, but the cost has limited downward space. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [22]. - Crude oil may regain strength after a pullback, but it is recommended to exit the main contract and wait and see [24][25]. - Fuel oil may have room to rise after a pullback, but it is recommended to exit the main contract and wait and see [26][27]. - For polyolefins, investors can look for long - buying opportunities [30]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [32]. - Natural rubber may run relatively strongly in the short term [33]. - PVC is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, but attention should be paid to export sustainability and post - holiday demand recovery [34][36]. - Urea prices are expected to be oscillating and relatively strong in the short term, driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - PX may be in an oscillating adjustment in the short term, and investors should participate cautiously [39]. - PTA may oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [40]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [42]. - Short - fiber may follow the raw material price in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [45]. - Bottle chips may follow the cost side, and it is recommended to participate cautiously before the Spring Festival [46]. - Soda ash is expected to be lightly and stably sorted before the festival, and investors should be cautious [47][48]. - Glass is expected to oscillate before the festival, and investors should pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [49]. - Caustic soda has a high - supply pattern, and due to the approaching Spring Festival, the trading sentiment may fluctuate, but investors should be cautious [50][51]. - Pulp is expected to have limited fluctuations in the market before the festival [52]. - Lithium carbonate may have increased short - term fluctuations, but the support at the bottom is still strong, and investors should control risks [54]. - Copper prices are expected to be adjusted before the festival [55]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short term [57]. - Zinc prices may enter an adjustment period [59]. - Lead prices maintain a range - bound oscillation [61]. - Tin prices have support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify, and investors should control risks [63]. - Nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [65]. - For soybean meal, investors can look for long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [67][68]. - For palm oil, investors can consider long - buying opportunities after a pullback [70]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [73]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Investors can go long in batches after a sufficient pullback [77][78]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weak in the medium and long term [80]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong in the medium and long term. After a pullback, investors can go long in batches [81]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to wait and see [84]. - For eggs, it is recommended to take profit on previous long - spread positions [85]. - Corn and corn starch may follow the market trend, and it is recommended to wait for the release of supply pressure [87]. - Logs show a strong performance in the short term, but the fundamental structure needs time to improve. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [90]. 3. Summary by Catalog Pulp - The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,266 yuan/ton, down 1.39%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, terminal demand stagnated, and some holders sold at a discount due to capital needs. The market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main contract fell 13.99% to 132,440 yuan/ton. The supply is at a high level, the demand is strong, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but short - term fluctuations may increase [53][54]. Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,820 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. Geopolitical events stimulate risk - aversion demand, but the real demand is weak, and the price is expected to be adjusted before the festival [55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,530 yuan/ton, down 2.12%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,821 yuan/ton, up 1.18%. The supply of alumina is loose, and the electrolytic aluminum supply has limited growth space. The demand is weak, and the price is under pressure in the short term [57]. Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,890 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The supply is tightened, the demand is weak, and the price may enter an adjustment period [59]. Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price maintains a range - bound oscillation [61]. Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 12.3% to 360,000 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, the demand has some resilience, and the short - term fluctuations may intensify [63]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 2.83% to 1,432,670 yuan/ton. The cost is expected to rise, the consumption is not optimistic, and the first - grade nickel is in an oversupply pattern [64][65]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.94% to 2,750 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 2.62% to 8,092 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing quickly, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving [66][67]. Palm Oil - The Indonesian government plans to restrict the export of palm oil waste. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. It is recommended to consider long - buying opportunities after a pullback [69][70]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The price of Canadian rapeseed is weak. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is at the second - highest level in the past seven years, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [71][73]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton decreased in position and fell. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable, and the domestic cotton supply is expected to be tight in the future. The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure in the short term [74][77]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zheng sugar decreased in position and fell. India has a strong production - increase expectation, and the domestic market is under the pressure of new domestic sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium and long term [79][80]. Apple - The previous trading day, the domestic apple futures fell slightly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production has declined. It is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. After a pullback, investors can go long in batches [81]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.04% to 11,220 yuan/ton. The supply pressure in the first quarter may still be large, and it is recommended to wait and see [83][84]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the main contract fell 1.51% to 3,002 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to take profit on previous long - spread positions [85]. Corn & Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.70% to 2,261 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract fell 0.63% to 2,513 yuan/ton. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the corn starch may follow the corn market [86][87]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 795.0 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The supply is slightly reduced, the inventory is decreasing, and the cost is slightly increasing. The short - term performance is strong, but the fundamental improvement needs time [88][90].