申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has been continuously improving since 2026, driven by the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the recovery of the economy, and the return of overseas funds. In February, the market is expected to continue its phased upward trend, benefiting from the "Spring Market" window period, the release of policy dividends in the "14th Five - Year Plan", clear profit expectations for AI and overseas expansion themes, and the seasonal recovery of the consumer sector and the implementation of investment projects. However, potential disturbances from overseas capital market fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday, especially geopolitical risks, should be watched out for [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices were 4582.20 (current month), 4577.40 (next month), 4540.00 (next quarter), and 4491.80 (next - to - next quarter), with declines of 136.20, 142.20, 167.60, and 170.60 respectively, and volume - weighted average price (VWAP) declines of 2.89%, 3.01%, 3.56%, and 3.66%. The trading volumes were 34422.00, 110802.00, 33589.00, and 12595.00, and the open interests were 37542.00, 174613.00, 75115.00, and 26611.00, with changes of - 2648.00, - 11760.00, - 4210.00, and - 145.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices were 3003.60 (current month), 3004.20 (next month), 2986.00 (next quarter), and 2963.60 (next - to - next quarter), with declines of 70.40, 71.60, 92.40, and 90.20 respectively, and VWAP declines of 2.29%, 2.33%, 3.00%, and 2.95%. The trading volumes were 16229.00, 53829.00, 13294.00, and 5931.00, and the open interests were 16983.00, 66246.00, 25931.00, and 10144.00, with changes of 829.00, - 4197.00, - 695.00, and 1001.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices were 7951.00 (current month), 7903.20 (next month), 7765.20 (next quarter), and 7647.00 (next - to - next quarter), with declines of 434.60, 475.20, 558.00, and 593.00 respectively, and VWAP declines of 5.18%, 5.67%, 6.70%, and 7.20%. The trading volumes were 43997.00, 151002.00, 69294.00, and 24711.00, and the open interests were 43403.00, 153481.00, 93095.00, and 38790.00, with changes of - 3591.00, - 10216.00, - 7752.00, and 869.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices were 7910.00 (current month), 7871.80 (next month), 7701.60 (next quarter), and 7548.60 (next - to - next quarter), with declines of 367.80, 387.60, 434.80, and 444.40 respectively, and VWAP declines of 4.44%, 4.69%, 5.34%, and 5.56%. The trading volumes were 46878.00, 173821.00, 60249.00, and 26152.00, and the open interests were 61033.00, 194848.00, 107833.00, and 50536.00, with changes of 2761.00, 3050.00, - 3441.00, and 3040.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 4.80, 0.60, - 47.80, and - 38.20 respectively, compared with the previous values of 1.00, 5.80, - 14.80, and - 21.80 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous day's closing values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4605.98, 3003.14, 8037.05, and 7975.43 respectively, with declines of 2.13%, 2.07%, 3.98%, and 3.39%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 304.77, 80.80, 299.65, and 308.32, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7259.20, 2081.53, 5460.56, and 4989.41 [1] - Industry Indexes: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumer sectors had declines of 4.44%, 7.74%, 0.96%, and 1.14% respectively. The major consumer sector had an increase of 1.12%, while the pharmaceutical, real - estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utility sectors had declines of 2.05%, 0.53%, 2.85%, 3.36%, and 0.81% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The previous day's basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (next - to - next quarter - CSI 300) were - 23.78, - 28.58, - 65.98, and - 114.18 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 3.66, 4.66, - 6.54, and - 51.34 [1] - The previous day's basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (next - to - next quarter - SSE 50) were 0.46, 1.06, - 17.14, and - 39.54 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 1.70, 7.50, 13.50, and - 13.30 [1] - The previous day's basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (next - to - next quarter - CSI 500) were - 86.05, - 133.85, - 271.85, and - 390.05 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 6.68, - 8.12, - 70.52, and - 160.52 [1] - The previous day's basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (next - to - next quarter - CSI 1000) were - 65.43, - 103.63, - 273.83, and - 426.83 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 27.54, 5.74, - 111.06, and - 258.26 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's closing values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4015.75, 13824.35, 8344.38, and 3264.11 respectively, with declines of 2.48%, 2.69%, 2.37%, and 2.46% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's closing values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26775.57, 52655.18, 6976.44, and 24806.10 respectively, with changes of - 2.23%, - 1.25%, 0.54%, and 1.09% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The Asia - Pacific financial markets experienced a "Black Monday" due to the uncertainty of the Fed's policy, leading to sell - offs. The South Korean Composite Index fell 5.26%, the Indonesian Composite Index fell 4.88%, and both triggered circuit breakers during the session. A - shares and Hong Kong stocks' three major indexes all fell more than 2%. Resource stocks were severely hit, and more than 10 commodity futures in the domestic market hit the daily limit down. Thailand's gold online futures trading was temporarily suspended [2] - On February 2, after the resumption of trading, the net asset value of SDIC Silver LOF was adjusted to 2.2494 yuan, with a single - day decline of 31.5%, setting a record for the largest single - day decline in public funds. The current secondary - market price premium rate is 109.92% [2] - Shanghai launched a program to purchase second - hand housing for affordable rental housing, with Pudong New Area, Jing'an District, and Xuhui District as the first - batch pilot areas [2] - The CPC Central Committee and the State Council approved the "Spatial Coordination Plan for the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area (2023 - 2035)", aiming to build a world - class metropolitan area centered around the capital and a leading area for demonstrating Chinese - style modernization [2] - Nine government departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, launched the "Happy Shopping for Chinese New Year" special event in 2026, which will run from February 15 to 23 and cover six aspects: "delicious food", "good accommodation", "convenient travel", "pleasant tourism", "satisfactory shopping", and "fun entertainment" [2] 3.6 Industry Information - In January, the second - hand housing markets in several key cities recovered. Beijing and Shanghai had 15,000 and 23,000 second - hand housing transactions respectively, both with year - on - year growth of over 20%. Shenzhen had 5,000 transactions, with a month - on - month increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. Hangzhou also saw a significant increase in transactions both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new - housing markets in key cities were relatively dull due to factors such as the market supply rhythm [2] - Ten government departments issued a document to promote the construction of a standard system for the low - altitude economy, aiming to establish a "four - dimensional integrated" standard supply system by 2027, focusing on five core areas: low - altitude aircraft, low - altitude infrastructure, low - altitude air traffic management, safety supervision, and application scenarios [2] - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced that this year's medical insurance fund supervision will conduct on - site inspections across all provinces in China, focusing on key areas such as orthopedics, oncology, laboratory tests, ophthalmology, stomatology, general surgery, and neurology [2] - The mandatory national standard "Safety Technical Requirements for Automobile Door Handles" will be implemented next year, requiring each door (excluding the rear door) to be equipped with a mechanical external door handle and a mechanical internal door handle, which will bring major changes to the popular hidden - door - handle design [2]