螺纹钢：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡，热轧卷板：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The market sentiment of hot-rolled coil plates resonates, showing a weak and volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - 1/29 Steel Union weekly data: For production, rebar increased by 0.28 tons, hot-rolled coil by 3.8 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 3.58 tons; for inventory, rebar increased by 23.43 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 2.2 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 21.43 tons; for apparent demand, rebar decreased by 9.12 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1.45 tons, and the total decreased by 7.78 tons [2][3] - In December, among key statistical enterprises, the output of medium and heavy plate mills increased year-on-year, while the output of hot continuous rolling mills and cold continuous rolling mills decreased year-on-year. Among major plate varieties, the output of shipbuilding plates, household appliance plates, and engineering machinery steel plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates and wind power steel plates decreased significantly year-on-year. In terms of product prices, except for medium and heavy wide steel strips, which increased month-on-month, other product prices decreased [3] - From January 1 - 12, the cumulative output of medium and heavy plate mills and cold continuous rolling mills increased year-on-year, while the cumulative output of hot continuous rolling mills remained flat year-on-year. Among major plate varieties, the cumulative output of shipbuilding plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates decreased significantly year-on-year [3] - In mid-January 2026, key statistical steel enterprises produced 19.79 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.979 million tons, a 0.9% decrease in daily output month-on-month; 17.94 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.794 million tons, a 1.8% increase in daily output month-on-month; 18.77 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.877 million tons, a 3.0% increase in daily output month-on-month. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 16.13 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous ten-day period, a 14.1% increase from the beginning of the year, a 0.8% increase from the same ten-day period of the previous month, a 24.7% increase from the same ten-day period of last year, and a 5.1% increase from the same ten-day period of the year before last [3] - In mid-January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a 0.3% decrease from the previous month, a 1.7% decrease from the beginning of the year, and a 5.2% increase from the same period of last year [3] - BHP Billiton announced that its first-half iron ore output reached a record high, and it has accepted a partial reduction in iron ore prices in the annual contract negotiation with China [3] - On January 19, a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steelmaking operation department of Baotou Baogang Plate Mill exploded, damaging some plants and equipment, which will affect the production of the plate mill production line and the surrounding affected production lines [3] - According to customs statistics, in December 2025, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, a 4.2% increase from the previous month; the average price was $1,810.3 per ton, an 11.0% increase from the previous month. From January - December, the cumulative steel imports were 6.059 million tons, an 11.1% decrease from the previous year [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs: Implement export license management for some steel products [4] 3.2 Trend Intensity - Rebar trend intensity: 0; Hot-rolled coil plate trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]