黎巴嫩经济监测，2025年冬季：脆弱的反弹（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Lebanon's economy recorded positive growth in 2025, with real GDP growth revised down to 3.5 percent due to a weaker-than-expected tourism season, reflecting a rebound in tourism and early signs of macroeconomic stabilization [18][21][54]. - The election of a president and the formation of a government have contributed to a degree of institutional and political stabilization, although it remains fragile [18][19]. - Progress on the reform agenda has been uneven, with critical reforms needed to restore macroeconomic and financial stability [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Context - A fragile ceasefire and regional escalation have negatively impacted economic activity, particularly tourism [48]. - Political functionality has returned with the election of a president and government formation, supporting economic activity [49]. 2. Recent Economic Developments Output and Demand - Real GDP growth is expected to be 3.5 percent in 2025, down from 4.7 percent due to a weaker tourism season [21][54]. - Private consumption remains the primary driver of growth, supported by remittances and increased dollarization [61][63]. Fiscal Developments - The fiscal stance has improved, with a projected balanced budget in 2025 due to increased revenue collection [23][32][64]. - Tax revenues are expected to reach 16.3 percent of GDP, driven by improved collection efforts [64]. External Sector - The current account deficit is estimated to narrow to 15.8 percent of GDP in 2025, supported by stronger services exports and remittance inflows [24][42]. - Exchange rate stability has persisted since August 2023, aided by improved revenue collection and fiscal measures [25][43]. Money and Banking - The banking sector restructuring law was enacted, but full implementation awaits further legislative action [50][38]. - Public debt remains high, and progress on debt restructuring is slow, limiting access to international capital markets [23][41]. 3. Outlook and Risks - Economic momentum is expected to continue into 2026, with real GDP growth projected at 4 percent, contingent on sustained reform progress and political stability [27][45]. - External vulnerabilities persist, with the current account deficit projected to widen to 16.1 percent of GDP in 2026 due to increased imports [28][47].