多资产配置周报：提名沃什不改美元信用弱化格局

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, falling below the neutral line of 50.1%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[13] - Production and new orders PMI are at 50.6% and 49.2% respectively, both showing significant declines from previous levels[19] - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve in 2026, driven by increased consumer demand and investment, despite current weak internal demand[15] Group 2: Market Reactions - Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has caused market volatility, with concerns that it may delay or cancel the anticipated interest rate cuts[21] - The CME Group has raised margin requirements for precious metals, indicating a tightening in trading conditions for gold and silver[20] - The overall trend for A-shares, gold, and commodities remains strong, although short-term uncertainties are increasing[22] Group 3: Future Projections - If the U.S. unemployment rate exceeds 4.5% and job creation remains low, the space for interest rate cuts is expected to reopen, potentially leading to a return to traditional easing paths[19] - Long-term, gold and commodities are still seen as having investment value, but they need to adjust to the short-term market sentiment[21]