20260203申万期货品种策略日报-软商品-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate overnight, with an oversupply situation remaining unchanged. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term due to the seasonal increase in sugar supply during the peak crushing season of southern sugar mills, unexpected high imports in December, and weak spot - market price and pre - holiday consumption [4]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated strongly overnight and maintained an overall strong trend. Driven by long - position funds and a weakening US dollar, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton rose with increased trading volume. Although the pre - holiday replenishment of downstream textile mills provides some support and spot sales are smooth, the follow - up demand support needs to be observed as the replenishment is approaching the end [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - Price and Volume Information: For sugar futures contracts (2609, 2605, 2603), prices decreased with declines of - 0.80%, - 0.78%, - 0.57% respectively compared to the previous two days. For 11 - number sugar futures contracts (2603, 2607, 2605), the price of 2603 remained unchanged, while 2607 and 2605 decreased by - 0.43% and - 0.42% respectively. There were also changes in持仓 volume and trading volume, with some contracts seeing an increase and others a decrease [1]. - Price Difference Information: The present values of price differences between different sugar futures contracts and 11 - number sugar futures contracts have changed compared to the previous values [1]. Spot Market - Sugar Spot Price: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5360 and 5175 respectively, showing a decrease compared to the previous values. The basis values in different regions also changed [1]. - Sugar Import Price: Import prices from Brazil and Thailand, both within and outside the quota, decreased compared to the previous values. The differences between futures prices and Thai sugar prices also slightly decreased [1]. Inventory and Position - The current sugar warehouse receipts are 14069, with an effective prediction of 197, and the total of warehouse receipts and predictions is 14266. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - number sugar and their ratio also changed compared to the previous values [1]. Industry News - Import Forecast: The Ministry of Commerce reported that the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in January was 0 tons [2]. - Brazilian Shipping Data: As of the week ending January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 178.26 million tons, with 163.03 million tons being high - grade raw sugar. The waiting sugar quantities at Santos and Paranagua ports were also reported [2]. - Brazilian Production Forecast: StoneX predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season would be 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous forecast, while ethanol production is expected to be 36.5 billion liters, an increase of 0.4 billion liters [2]. - Indian Production Data: As of January 31, 2026, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, a 18.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The number of operating sugar mills also increased. Different states in India showed varying degrees of production growth. Also, 18 sugar mills had stopped operating, and relevant data on cane crushing and sugar production were reported [3].