20260203申万期货品种策略日报：原油甲醇-20260203

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - SC night session dropped 4.8%. With the easing of tensions between the US and Iran, European and American crude oil futures fell from multi - month highs. The strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and warmer climate also dampened the oil market sentiment. The situation in Venezuela has also eased. As of the week ending January 16, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 255,000 barrels from the same period last year [3] - Methanol night session dropped 1.18%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.06%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points month - on - month. As of January 29, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 1.43 million tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from January 22, a decline of 0.33%, and a year - on - year increase of 42.43%. The estimated import volume of methanol from January 30 to February 15 is 593,000 - 600,000 tons. As of January 29, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 77.56%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.75 percentage points [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume Information: For SC crude oil, the previous day's closing prices of near - month and next - month contracts were 449.0 and 450.2 respectively, with price drops of - 16.6 and - 20.6 and declines of - 3.57% and - 4.38%. For WTI, the previous day's closing prices of near - month and next - month contracts were 65.51 and 65.03, with price increases of 2.01 and 1.89 and increases of 3.17% and 2.99%. For Brent, the previous day's closing prices of near - month and next - month contracts were 68.74 and 67.69, with price increases of 1.04 and 0.93 and increases of 1.54% and 1.39%. The trading volumes of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 197,282, 89,777, 329,531, 164,734, 167,809, and 497,112 respectively. The positions were 36,200, 29,903, 368,969, 187,862, 242,672, and 673,322 respectively, with position changes of 36,058, - 14,214, 4,711, 4,219, - 63,201, and - 16,797 respectively [2] - Spread Information: The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - Brent near - month, and WTI near - month - Brent next - month were - 1.2, 450.2, - 5.7, - 28.1, 3.34, and 1.05 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 5.2, 180.8, 24.9, - 4.3, 2.50, and 0.94 [2] Spot Market - International Market: The current prices of OPEC basket crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were 67.03, 73.03, 65.21, 67.04, 66.62, and 62.30 respectively, compared with the previous values of 67.00, 72.57, 65.42, 66.67, 66.61, and 62.41 [2] - Domestic Market: The current prices of Daqing, Shengli, Chinese gasoline wholesale price index, Chinese diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha (Singapore), and ex - factory price of aviation kerosene were 66.10, 65.00, 7,423, 6,133, 63.85, and 5,334 respectively, compared with the previous values of 66.00, 64.70, 7,374, 6,095, 63.79, and 5,574 [2]